Walsall vs Grimsby: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Grimsby
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Grimsby at 38.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 52.8% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 52.7% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"39% on Grimsby is a measurement, not a promise." Little between these two in the data. Grimsby at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 22 August 2026. Bookmakers see it the same way, 38% on Grimsby, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Walsall, 1 draws and 2 for Grimsby, averaging 4.2 goals a game. Recent form reads W2 D0 L4 for Walsall against W4 D1 L1 for Grimsby. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
33.5%+0.2%
27.8%-0.5%
38.6%+0.1%
value_gap +0.002 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Walsall 2 · 1 draws · Grimsby 2 · 4.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 59.3% | Over 7.5 | 46.1% | Over 8.5 | 33.9% | Over 9.5 | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Walsall | 43.8% | Most: Grimsby | 42.5% | ||||
| Walsall Over 4.2 | 32.7% | Grimsby Over 4.2 | 31.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.8% | Over 3.5 | 49.8% | Over 4.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Walsall | 38.7% | Most: Grimsby | 39.5% | ||
| Walsall Over 1.8 | 54.4% | Grimsby Over 1.8 | 54.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Walsall clean sheet | 26.3% |
|---|---|
| Grimsby clean sheet | 29.2% |
| Walsall win to nil | 17.9% |
| Grimsby win to nil | 20.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 33.5% | draw | 27.8% | away | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 61.4% | 12 | 72.2% | X2 | 66.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 46.5% | away | 53.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.7% | no | 47.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.3% | away | 29.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.0% | away | 21.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 19.0% | home_by_2 | 9.7% | home_by_3plus | 4.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 20.8% | away_by_2 | 11.5% | away_by_3plus | 6.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.3% | 0-1 | 9.7% | 0-2 | 6.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.3% | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 3.8% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.8% | 2-1 | 7.8% | 2-2 | 5.2% |
| 2-3 | 2.3% | 2-4 | 0.8% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.4% | 3-1 | 3.2% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.7% | 4-1 | 1.0% | 4-2 | 0.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.2% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.4% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.7% | under_0.5 | 8.3% | over_1.5 | 73.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 26.8% | over_2.5 | 47.2% | under_2.5 | 52.8% |
| over_3.5 | 25.6% | under_3.5 | 74.4% | over_4.5 | 11.8% |
| under_4.5 | 88.3% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 70.7% | under_0.5 | 29.3% | over_1.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.3% | over_2.5 | 12.7% | under_2.5 | 87.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.7% | under_0.5 | 26.3% | over_1.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.4% | over_2.5 | 15.1% | under_2.5 | 84.9% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 27.8% | away | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 4.8% | away_+2.5 | 95.2% | home_-1.5 | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 85.5% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% | away_+0.5 | 66.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.4% | away_-0.5 | 38.6% | home_+1.5 | 82.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.9% | home_+2.5 | 93.6% | away_-2.5 | 6.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.3% | exact_1 | 18.5% | exact_2 | 25.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.9% | exact_5 | 7.1% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 43.2% | away | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.9% | under_0.5 | 32.1% | over_1.5 | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.5% | over_2.5 | 10.7% | under_2.5 | 89.3% |
btts
| yes | 18.7% | no | 81.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.1% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.9% | exact_4plus | 2.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 31.5% | draw | 37.8% | away | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.2% | under_0.5 | 23.8% | over_1.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.0% | over_2.5 | 17.5% | under_2.5 | 82.5% |
btts
| yes | 26.2% | no | 73.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.7% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.6% | D/D | 16.3% | D/A | 13.3% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.7% | A/A | 23.7% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 75.1% | under_7.5 | 24.9% | over_8.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 35.8% | over_9.5 | 52.5% | under_9.5 | 47.5% |
| over_10.5 | 41.0% | under_10.5 | 59.0% | over_11.5 | 30.7% |
| under_11.5 | 69.4% | over_12.5 | 21.9% | under_12.5 | 78.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.1% | under_3.5 | 27.0% | over_4.5 | 57.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.2% | over_5.5 | 42.7% | under_5.5 | 57.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.9% | under_3.5 | 35.1% | over_4.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.8% | over_5.5 | 33.2% | under_5.5 | 66.8% |
most
| home | 51.1% | draw | 10.7% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.8% | away_+3.5 | 78.2% | home_-1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.6% | home_-0.5 | 51.1% | away_+0.5 | 48.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+1.5 | 71.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.4% | home_+3.5 | 86.6% | away_-3.5 | 13.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 55.6% | under_22.5 | 44.4% | over_24.5 | 42.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 57.2% | over_26.5 | 31.0% | under_26.5 | 69.0% |
| over_28.5 | 21.2% | under_28.5 | 78.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 65.5% | under_10.5 | 34.5% | over_12.5 | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 52.1% | over_14.5 | 31.7% | under_14.5 | 68.3% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.4% | under_10.5 | 47.6% | over_12.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 65.7% | over_14.5 | 20.1% | under_14.5 | 79.9% |
most
| home | 56.4% | draw | 6.4% | away | 37.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 31.0% | away_+4.5 | 69.0% | home_-2.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 56.7% | home_-0.5 | 56.4% | away_+0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.8% | away_-0.5 | 37.2% | home_+2.5 | 74.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 25.6% | home_+4.5 | 83.8% | away_-4.5 | 16.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 59.3% | under_6.5 | 40.7% | over_7.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 53.9% | over_8.5 | 33.9% | under_8.5 | 66.1% |
| over_9.5 | 23.6% | under_9.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 49.9% | under_3.5 | 50.1% | over_4.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.3% | over_5.5 | 19.6% | under_5.5 | 80.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.0% | under_3.5 | 51.0% | over_4.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.2% | over_5.5 | 18.9% | under_5.5 | 81.1% |
most
| home | 43.9% | draw | 13.6% | away | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.3% | away_+2.5 | 79.7% | home_-0.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.2% | home_+0.5 | 57.5% | away_-0.5 | 42.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.7% | away_-2.5 | 19.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.8% | under_2.5 | 29.2% | over_3.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.2% | over_4.5 | 30.6% | under_4.5 | 69.4% |
| over_5.5 | 16.5% | under_5.5 | 83.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 54.4% | under_1.5 | 45.6% | over_2.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.9% | under_1.5 | 45.1% | over_2.5 | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 71.9% |
most
| home | 38.8% | draw | 21.7% | away | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.4% | away_+1.5 | 79.6% | home_-0.5 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.3% | home_+0.5 | 60.5% | away_-0.5 | 39.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 79.0% | away_-1.5 | 21.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 66.3% | under_20.5 | 33.7% | over_22.5 | 50.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 49.1% | over_24.5 | 35.8% | under_24.5 | 64.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.3% | under_9.5 | 31.7% | over_11.5 | 46.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.7% | over_13.5 | 26.7% | under_13.5 | 73.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 68.9% | under_9.5 | 31.2% | over_11.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.0% | over_13.5 | 27.2% | under_13.5 | 72.8% |
most
| home | 45.6% | draw | 7.9% | away | 46.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.2% | away_+3.5 | 75.8% | home_-0.5 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 54.4% | home_+2.5 | 68.4% | away_-2.5 | 31.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.1% | no | 91.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 3.5% | no | 96.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Walsall predictions · Grimsby predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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