Bristol Rvs vs Newport County: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Bristol Rvs or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Bristol Rvs at 48.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.0% and it landed (8 goals). We called Yes at 54.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Bristol Rvs at 49% for 22 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Bristol Rvs at 59%. Caution noted. • No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • Recent form reads W4 D1 L1 for Bristol Rvs against W4 D0 L2 for Newport County. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Bristol Rvs, 0 draws and 2 for Newport County, averaging 3.6 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
48.7%-9.9%
25.7%+0.7%
25.5%+9.0%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Bristol Rvs 3 · 0 draws · Newport County 2 · 3.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 59.2% | Over 7.5 | 46.0% | Over 8.5 | 33.8% | Over 9.5 | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol Rvs | 55.5% | Most: Newport County | 31.5% | ||||
| Bristol Rvs Over 4.2 | 40.5% | Newport County Over 4.2 | 24.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 76.4% | Over 3.5 | 56.9% | Over 4.5 | 37.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Bristol Rvs | 36.0% | Most: Newport County | 43.4% | ||
| Bristol Rvs Over 1.8 | 56.9% | Newport County Over 1.8 | 62.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Bristol Rvs clean sheet | 32.4% |
|---|---|
| Newport County clean sheet | 19.5% |
| Bristol Rvs win to nil | 25.4% |
| Newport County win to nil | 12.6% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 48.7% | draw | 25.7% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.5% | 12 | 74.3% | X2 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.6% | away | 34.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 54.8% | no | 45.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 32.6% | away | 19.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.6% | away | 12.6% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.7% | home_by_2 | 15.0% | home_by_3plus | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.4% | away_by_2 | 7.1% | away_by_3plus | 3.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 0-1 | 6.6% | 0-2 | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | 1-1 | 12.2% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.4% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 2-1 | 9.5% | 2-2 | 5.3% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.6% | 3-1 | 5.2% | 3-2 | 2.9% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 2.1% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.7% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.0% | under_0.5 | 7.0% | over_1.5 | 76.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.3% | over_2.5 | 52.0% | under_2.5 | 48.0% |
| over_3.5 | 29.9% | under_3.5 | 70.1% | over_4.5 | 14.6% |
| under_4.5 | 85.4% | over_5.5 | 6.2% | under_5.5 | 93.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 80.5% | under_0.5 | 19.6% | over_1.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.4% | over_2.5 | 22.6% | under_2.5 | 77.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 67.4% | under_0.5 | 32.6% | over_1.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.1% | over_2.5 | 10.4% | under_2.5 | 89.6% |
most
| home | 48.7% | draw | 25.7% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.0% | away_+2.5 | 89.0% | home_-1.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.0% | home_-0.5 | 48.7% | away_+0.5 | 51.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.5% | away_-0.5 | 25.5% | home_+1.5 | 89.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.1% | home_+2.5 | 96.9% | away_-2.5 | 3.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.0% | exact_1 | 16.4% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.3% | exact_5 | 8.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.9% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.5% | draw | 42.9% | away | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.5% | under_0.5 | 32.5% | over_1.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.0% | over_2.5 | 10.5% | under_2.5 | 89.6% |
btts
| yes | 17.4% | no | 82.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.5% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.7% | exact_4plus | 2.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.7% | draw | 32.9% | away | 25.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.7% | under_0.5 | 17.3% | over_1.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 47.7% | over_2.5 | 25.7% | under_2.5 | 74.3% |
btts
| yes | 33.2% | no | 66.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.1% | H/D | 5.3% | H/A | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.9% | D/D | 14.1% | D/A | 10.9% |
| A/H | 2.8% | A/D | 4.4% | A/A | 12.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.6% | under_7.5 | 26.4% | over_8.5 | 62.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.7% | over_9.5 | 50.5% | under_9.5 | 49.5% |
| over_10.5 | 39.1% | under_10.5 | 60.9% | over_11.5 | 28.9% |
| under_11.5 | 71.1% | over_12.5 | 20.4% | under_12.5 | 79.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 75.8% | under_3.5 | 24.2% | over_4.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.8% | over_5.5 | 46.3% | under_5.5 | 53.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.6% | under_3.5 | 41.4% | over_4.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.6% | over_5.5 | 27.0% | under_5.5 | 73.1% |
most
| home | 57.9% | draw | 10.4% | away | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.9% | away_+3.5 | 73.1% | home_-1.5 | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 53.0% | home_-0.5 | 57.9% | away_+0.5 | 42.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.3% | away_-0.5 | 31.7% | home_+1.5 | 77.4% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.6% | home_+3.5 | 90.3% | away_-3.5 | 9.7% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.0% | under_22.5 | 42.0% | over_24.5 | 45.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.8% | over_26.5 | 33.3% | under_26.5 | 66.7% |
| over_28.5 | 23.0% | under_28.5 | 77.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 70.6% | under_10.5 | 29.4% | over_12.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 46.3% | over_14.5 | 37.3% | under_14.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.6% | under_10.5 | 50.4% | over_12.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.4% | over_14.5 | 18.1% | under_14.5 | 81.9% |
most
| home | 62.4% | draw | 6.0% | away | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 36.8% | away_+4.5 | 63.2% | home_-2.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.5% | home_-0.5 | 62.4% | away_+0.5 | 37.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.4% | away_-0.5 | 31.6% | home_+2.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.0% | home_+4.5 | 87.1% | away_-4.5 | 12.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 59.2% | under_6.5 | 40.8% | over_7.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 54.0% | over_8.5 | 33.8% | under_8.5 | 66.2% |
| over_9.5 | 23.6% | under_9.5 | 76.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.7% | under_3.5 | 42.3% | over_4.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.5% | over_5.5 | 26.1% | under_5.5 | 73.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 40.2% | under_3.5 | 59.8% | over_4.5 | 24.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 76.0% | over_5.5 | 13.0% | under_5.5 | 87.0% |
most
| home | 55.5% | draw | 13.1% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.5% | away_+2.5 | 70.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.5% | home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.8% | away_-2.5 | 12.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 76.4% | under_2.5 | 23.6% | over_3.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 43.1% | over_4.5 | 37.4% | under_4.5 | 62.6% |
| over_5.5 | 21.7% | under_5.5 | 78.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 56.9% | under_1.5 | 43.1% | over_2.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 62.1% | under_1.5 | 37.9% | over_2.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 64.9% |
most
| home | 36.0% | draw | 20.6% | away | 43.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.1% | away_+1.5 | 80.9% | home_-0.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.0% | home_+0.5 | 56.6% | away_-0.5 | 43.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.3% | away_-1.5 | 24.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 69.7% | under_20.5 | 30.3% | over_22.5 | 54.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 45.2% | over_24.5 | 39.6% | under_24.5 | 60.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 71.9% | under_9.5 | 28.2% | over_11.5 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 49.4% | over_13.5 | 30.4% | under_13.5 | 69.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.9% | under_9.5 | 30.1% | over_11.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.7% | over_13.5 | 28.3% | under_13.5 | 71.7% |
most
| home | 47.8% | draw | 7.7% | away | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.1% | away_+3.5 | 73.9% | home_-0.5 | 47.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.3% | home_+2.5 | 70.1% | away_-2.5 | 29.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 10.0% | no | 90.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.8% | no | 89.2% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Bristol Rvs predictions · Newport County predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets