OFI Crete vs Volos NFC prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)

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OFI Crete vs Volos NFC: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 23 Aug 2026

Super League Greece
OFI Crete

WLLLW

Full time2-0Sun, 23 Aug 202617:30UK
Volos NFC

LLLLL

Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

OFI Crete or draw

59%

Both teams to score

Full time0 of 2 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

OFI Crete 2-0 Volos NFC
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Both teams to score
1 of 3 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was OFI Crete at 49.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 57.4% and it missed (2 goals). We called Yes at 58.9% and it missed.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
OFI CreteWin probability
49.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals80.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
OFI Crete or draw74.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Both teams to score58.9%Good chancePays @ 1.70

Model read

▾

The model leans OFI Crete at 50% when OFI Crete host Volos NFC in the Super League Greece on 23 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Our number sits above the market's 46% for OFI Crete. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 57% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for OFI Crete against W0 D1 L5 for Volos NFC. The recent series reads 2 wins for OFI Crete, 2 draws and 1 for Volos NFC over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.021 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners46.8%@ 2.14
Over 9.5 corners36.3%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals57.4%@ 1.74
Draw or Volos NFC50.4%@ 1.98
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.78
2-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.47
1-0 correct score8.3%@ 12.00

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

OFI Crete

49.6%+3.7%

Draw

24.4%-4.3%

Volos NFC

26.0%+0.7%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.021 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.4%

High probability

Over 2.557.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.9%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.546.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.536.3%

Toss-up

Over 10.527.2%

Low chance

Over 11.519.7%

Low chance

Most cornersOFI Crete50.7%Volos NFC37.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.5%

Good chance

Over 24.540.0%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.6%

Low chance

Over 28.520.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.4%2.557.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.580.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

OFI CreteWLLLW
Volos NFCLLLLL

Last 5 meetings: OFI Crete 2 · 2 draws · Volos NFC 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-05-17OFI Crete 3-1 Volos NFC
2026-04-05Volos NFC 1-1 OFI Crete
2026-03-08Volos NFC 1-1 OFI Crete
2025-11-29OFI Crete 0-1 Volos NFC
2024-12-23OFI Crete 4-0 Volos NFC

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

OFI CreteVolos NFC
League position#9 of 14#12 of 14
Record W-D-L12-3-179-5-18
Current streakW1L5
Points per game1.221.00
Record, home vs away8-0-84-0-12
PPG, home vs away1.500.75
Goals scored per game1.341.03
Goals conceded per game1.721.72
Scored, home vs away1.561.06
Conceded, home vs away1.252.00
1st half goals per game0.780.50
2nd half goals per game0.560.53
Corners won per game2.93.9
Cards per game2.73.1
Fouls per game13.715.2
Red cards this season72
Shots per game9.510.9
Shots on target per game3.43.6
Over 2.5 rate

68.8%53.1%

BTTS rate

46.9%56.2%

Clean sheets

25.0%12.5%

Rates this season:OFI CreteVolos NFC

League averages this season: 2.57 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 49%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
OFI Crete win2.052.02
Draw3.204.10
Volos NFC win3.603.85
Over 2.5 goals1.851.74
Under 2.5 goals1.952.35

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

OFI Crete win2.02
Draw4.10
Volos NFC win3.85
Both teams to score1.70

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.74
Over 3.5 goals2.85
OFI Crete most2.02
Volos NFC most3.85

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.64
Over 8.5 corners2.08
Over 9.5 corners2.80
Over 10.5 corners3.97
OFI Crete most1.97
Volos NFC most2.65

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.29
Over 4.5 cards1.63
Over 5.5 cards2.27
OFI Crete most3.75
Volos NFC most1.76

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.82
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.06
OFI Crete most2.16
Volos NFC most2.41

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.94
Over 24.5 shots2.50
Over 26.5 shots3.38
Over 28.5 shots4.81
OFI Crete most1.77
Volos NFC most2.67

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.16
Over 24.5 fouls1.29
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.8% Over 7.5 54.9% Over 8.5 43.3% Over 9.5 32.7%
Most: OFI Crete 46.3% Most: Volos NFC 41.5%
OFI Crete Over 4.2 40.5% Volos NFC Over 4.2 37.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.0% Over 3.5 77.7% Over 4.5 61.3%
Most: OFI Crete 26.7% Most: Volos NFC 56.7%
OFI Crete Over 1.8 64.6% Volos NFC Over 1.8 81.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

OFI Crete clean sheet 29.2%
Volos NFC clean sheet 17.2%
OFI Crete win to nil 23.6%
Volos NFC win to nil 11.6%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.6% draw 24.4% away 26.0%
double_chance
1X 74.0% 12 75.6% X2 50.4%
dnb
home 65.6% away 34.4%
btts
yes 58.9% no 41.1%
clean_sheet
home 29.5% away 17.2%
win_to_nil
home 23.9% away 11.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.0% home_by_2 15.2% home_by_3plus 12.4%
away_by_1 15.1% away_by_2 7.3% away_by_3plus 3.5%
correct_score
0-0 5.6% 0-1 5.7% 0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 8.3% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.8% 2-1 9.6% 2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.6% 3-1 5.6% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.1% 4-1 2.5% 4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.7% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.4% under_0.5 5.6% over_1.5 80.4%
under_1.5 19.6% over_2.5 57.4% under_2.5 42.6%
over_3.5 35.1% under_3.5 65.0% over_4.5 18.3%
under_4.5 81.7% over_5.5 8.3% under_5.5 91.7%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.7%
under_1.5 47.3% over_2.5 26.1% under_2.5 73.9%
team_away
over_0.5 70.5% under_0.5 29.5% over_1.5 34.5%
under_1.5 65.5% over_2.5 12.5% under_2.5 87.5%
most
home 49.6% draw 24.4% away 26.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.4% away_+2.5 87.6% home_-1.5 27.6%
away_+1.5 72.4% home_-0.5 49.6% away_+0.5 50.4%
home_+0.5 74.0% away_-0.5 26.0% home_+1.5 89.2%
away_-1.5 10.8% home_+2.5 96.5% away_-2.5 3.5%
total_exact
exact_0 5.6% exact_1 14.0% exact_2 23.0%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.7% exact_5 10.0%
exact_6 5.0% exact_7plus 3.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 48.3% draw 34.0% away 17.8%
total
over_0.5 78.9% under_0.5 21.1% over_1.5 46.0%
under_1.5 54.0% over_2.5 20.5% under_2.5 79.5%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
total_exact
exact_0 21.1% exact_1 32.9% exact_2 25.5%
exact_3 13.2% exact_4plus 7.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.6% draw 36.3% away 27.1%
total
over_0.5 78.0% under_0.5 22.0% over_1.5 44.7%
under_1.5 55.3% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.5%
btts
yes 27.9% no 72.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 39.5% H/D 6.5% H/A 2.4%
D/H 12.4% D/D 12.3% D/A 9.2%
A/H 1.8% A/D 3.7% A/A 12.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.0% under_7.5 39.0% over_8.5 48.0%
under_8.5 52.0% over_9.5 35.7% under_9.5 64.3%
over_10.5 25.2% under_10.5 74.8% over_11.5 16.8%
under_11.5 83.2% over_12.5 10.7% under_12.5 89.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.5% under_3.5 36.5% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 32.1% under_5.5 68.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.8% under_3.5 46.2% over_4.5 36.8%
under_4.5 63.2% over_5.5 23.1% under_5.5 76.9%
most
home 50.9% draw 11.3% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-1.5 39.5%
away_+1.5 60.5% home_-0.5 50.9% away_+0.5 49.1%
home_+0.5 62.2% away_-0.5 37.8% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 87.9% away_-3.5 12.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.5% under_22.5 48.5% over_24.5 40.0%
under_24.5 60.0% over_26.5 29.6% under_26.5 70.4%
over_28.5 20.8% under_28.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 61.8% under_10.5 38.2% over_12.5 45.9%
under_12.5 54.2% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
team_away
over_10.5 48.3% under_10.5 51.7% over_12.5 32.3%
under_12.5 67.7% over_14.5 19.9% under_14.5 80.1%
most
home 56.7% draw 5.9% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.1% away_+4.5 66.9% home_-2.5 44.6%
away_+2.5 55.4% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.4%
home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5% home_+2.5 73.3%
away_-2.5 26.7% home_+4.5 82.2% away_-4.5 17.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.8% under_6.5 33.2% over_7.5 54.9%
under_7.5 45.1% over_8.5 43.3% under_8.5 56.7%
over_9.5 32.7% under_9.5 67.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 40.5%
under_4.5 59.5% over_5.5 27.0% under_5.5 73.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.4% under_3.5 46.6% over_4.5 37.1%
under_4.5 62.9% over_5.5 24.0% under_5.5 76.0%
most
home 46.3% draw 12.2% away 41.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.2% away_+2.5 75.8% home_-0.5 46.3%
away_+0.5 53.7% home_+0.5 58.5% away_-0.5 41.5%
home_+2.5 79.5% away_-2.5 20.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.0% under_2.5 10.0% over_3.5 77.7%
under_3.5 22.3% over_4.5 61.3% under_4.5 38.7%
over_5.5 44.0% under_5.5 56.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 64.6% under_1.5 35.4% over_2.5 37.9%
under_2.5 62.2%
team_away
over_1.5 81.7% under_1.5 18.3% over_2.5 60.2%
under_2.5 39.8%
most
home 26.7% draw 16.6% away 56.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 14.2% away_+1.5 85.8% home_-0.5 26.7%
away_+0.5 73.3% home_+0.5 43.3% away_-0.5 56.8%
home_+1.5 60.9% away_-1.5 39.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 92.5% under_20.5 7.5% over_22.5 86.3%
under_22.5 13.7% over_24.5 77.6% under_24.5 22.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.2% under_9.5 16.9% over_11.5 67.8%
under_11.5 32.2% over_13.5 49.8% under_13.5 50.2%
team_away
over_9.5 91.6% under_9.5 8.4% over_11.5 81.4%
under_11.5 18.6% over_13.5 66.9% under_13.5 33.1%
most
home 34.8% draw 6.0% away 59.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 19.4% away_+3.5 80.6% home_-0.5 34.8%
away_+0.5 65.2% home_+2.5 53.3% away_-2.5 46.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.0% no 81.0%
home
yes 10.8% no 89.2%
away
yes 9.3% no 90.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: OFI Crete predictions · Volos NFC predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Super League GreeceOFI CreteVolos NFCTrack record