Middlesbrough vs Lincoln: model prediction
ChampionshipMiddlesbrough or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Middlesbrough at 65.0%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 51.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Middlesbrough go into this Championship meeting with Lincoln on 15 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 65%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Middlesbrough at 74%. Caution noted. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. 3) As a promoted side, Lincoln carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
65.0%-8.6%
21.3%+5.4%
13.7%+3.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.5% | Over 7.5 | 55.9% | Over 8.5 | 43.2% | Over 9.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Middlesbrough | 61.5% | Most: Lincoln | 26.6% | ||||
| Middlesbrough Over 4.2 | 51.2% | Lincoln Over 4.2 | 26.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 70.6% | Over 3.5 | 49.6% | Over 4.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Middlesbrough | 25.7% | Most: Lincoln | 53.8% | ||
| Middlesbrough Over 1.8 | 43.2% | Lincoln Over 1.8 | 64.1% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Middlesbrough clean sheet | 43.6% |
|---|---|
| Lincoln clean sheet | 13.3% |
| Middlesbrough win to nil | 37.2% |
| Lincoln win to nil | 6.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 65.0% | draw | 21.3% | away | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 86.3% | 12 | 78.7% | X2 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 82.6% | away | 17.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.8% | no | 51.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 44.3% | away | 13.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 38.0% | away | 6.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.2% | home_by_2 | 20.1% | home_by_3plus | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.5% | away_by_2 | 3.3% | away_by_3plus | 1.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 4.3% | 0-2 | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | 1-1 | 10.2% | 1-2 | 3.9% |
| 1-3 | 1.1% | 1-4 | 0.2% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.0% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.1% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 8.1% | 3-1 | 6.6% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 4.1% | 4-1 | 3.3% | 4-2 | 1.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.7% | 5-1 | 1.3% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 12.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 77.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 22.1% | over_2.5 | 53.8% | under_2.5 | 46.2% |
| over_3.5 | 31.5% | under_3.5 | 68.5% | over_4.5 | 15.7% |
| under_4.5 | 84.3% | over_5.5 | 6.8% | under_5.5 | 93.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 86.7% | under_0.5 | 13.3% | over_1.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 40.1% | over_2.5 | 32.8% | under_2.5 | 67.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 55.7% | under_0.5 | 44.3% | over_1.5 | 19.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 80.4% | over_2.5 | 4.9% | under_2.5 | 95.1% |
most
| home | 65.0% | draw | 21.3% | away | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 20.7% | away_+2.5 | 79.3% | home_-1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.2% | home_-0.5 | 65.0% | away_+0.5 | 35.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 86.3% | away_-0.5 | 13.7% | home_+1.5 | 95.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.2% | home_+2.5 | 99.0% | away_-2.5 | 1.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.7% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.8% | exact_5 | 8.9% |
| exact_6 | 4.2% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.6% | draw | 38.7% | away | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.5% | under_0.5 | 27.5% | over_1.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.0% | over_2.5 | 14.1% | under_2.5 | 85.9% |
btts
| yes | 20.3% | no | 79.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.5% | exact_1 | 35.5% | exact_2 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.9% | exact_4plus | 4.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.8% | draw | 38.1% | away | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 75.0% | under_0.5 | 25.0% | over_1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 59.6% | over_2.5 | 16.4% | under_2.5 | 83.6% |
btts
| yes | 24.4% | no | 75.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 36.1% | H/D | 5.7% | H/A | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.6% | D/D | 14.8% | D/A | 9.3% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 11.9% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 82.4% | under_7.5 | 17.6% | over_8.5 | 73.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 26.9% | over_9.5 | 62.3% | under_9.5 | 37.7% |
| over_10.5 | 50.9% | under_10.5 | 49.1% | over_11.5 | 39.8% |
| under_11.5 | 60.2% | over_12.5 | 29.8% | under_12.5 | 70.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 83.9% | under_3.5 | 16.1% | over_4.5 | 72.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 28.0% | over_5.5 | 58.2% | under_5.5 | 41.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.1% | under_3.5 | 37.9% | over_4.5 | 44.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 55.2% | over_5.5 | 29.8% | under_5.5 | 70.2% |
most
| home | 63.8% | draw | 9.3% | away | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 33.5% | away_+3.5 | 66.5% | home_-1.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 46.4% | home_-0.5 | 63.8% | away_+0.5 | 36.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.1% | away_-0.5 | 26.9% | home_+1.5 | 81.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 19.0% | home_+3.5 | 91.9% | away_-3.5 | 8.1% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.7% | under_22.5 | 35.3% | over_24.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.7% | over_26.5 | 40.0% | under_26.5 | 60.0% |
| over_28.5 | 28.8% | under_28.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 78.8% | under_10.5 | 21.2% | over_12.5 | 64.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.9% | over_14.5 | 48.1% | under_14.5 | 51.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 47.7% | under_10.5 | 52.3% | over_12.5 | 30.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 70.0% | over_14.5 | 16.9% | under_14.5 | 83.1% |
most
| home | 70.5% | draw | 5.2% | away | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 46.2% | away_+4.5 | 53.8% | home_-2.5 | 58.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 41.2% | home_-0.5 | 70.5% | away_+0.5 | 29.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.8% | away_-0.5 | 24.3% | home_+2.5 | 84.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 15.5% | home_+4.5 | 90.9% | away_-4.5 | 9.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.5% | under_6.5 | 31.5% | over_7.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.2% | over_8.5 | 43.2% | under_8.5 | 56.8% |
| over_9.5 | 31.8% | under_9.5 | 68.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.9% | under_3.5 | 32.1% | over_4.5 | 51.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 48.8% | over_5.5 | 35.6% | under_5.5 | 64.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 42.9% | under_3.5 | 57.1% | over_4.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 74.0% | over_5.5 | 14.2% | under_5.5 | 85.8% |
most
| home | 61.5% | draw | 11.9% | away | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 35.9% | away_+2.5 | 64.1% | home_-0.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 38.5% | home_+0.5 | 73.4% | away_-0.5 | 26.6% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.1% | away_-2.5 | 9.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 70.7% | under_2.5 | 29.3% | over_3.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 50.4% | over_4.5 | 30.4% | under_4.5 | 69.6% |
| over_5.5 | 16.3% | under_5.5 | 83.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 43.2% | under_1.5 | 56.8% | over_2.5 | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 81.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 64.1% | under_1.5 | 35.9% | over_2.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.7% |
most
| home | 25.7% | draw | 20.5% | away | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.5% | away_+1.5 | 88.6% | home_-0.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 74.3% | home_+0.5 | 46.2% | away_-0.5 | 53.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 67.3% | away_-1.5 | 32.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.0% | under_20.5 | 42.0% | over_22.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.7% | over_24.5 | 28.2% | under_24.5 | 71.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 47.8% | under_9.5 | 52.2% | over_11.5 | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 73.7% | over_13.5 | 12.0% | under_13.5 | 88.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 75.1% | under_9.5 | 24.9% | over_11.5 | 55.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.0% | over_13.5 | 34.8% | under_13.5 | 65.2% |
most
| home | 26.5% | draw | 7.0% | away | 66.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.0% | away_+3.5 | 89.1% | home_-0.5 | 26.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 73.5% | home_+2.5 | 48.9% | away_-2.5 | 51.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 9.5% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.3% | no | 97.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.4% | no | 92.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Middlesbrough predictions · Lincoln predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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