Braunschweig vs Dresden prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Braunschweig vs Dresden: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Braunschweig

LWLLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202612:00UK
Dresden

WLWLL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Over 8.5 corners

65%

Braunschweig or draw

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BraunschweigWin probability
39.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.22
Over 8.5 corners68.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.46
Braunschweig or draw64.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.54

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Braunschweig and Dresden on 12 September 2026: Braunschweig nose ahead at 40%. Our number sits above the market's 34% for Braunschweig. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W2 D0 L4 for Braunschweig against W2 D0 L4 for Dresden. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Braunschweig, 2 draws and 0 for Dresden, averaging 2.6 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners47.6%@ 2.10
Over 11.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65
Dresden win35.1%@ 2.85
Medium risk

Draw or Dresden60.1%@ 1.66
Over 2.5 goals59.4%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners58.1%@ 1.72
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.74
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.52
1-2 correct score8.1%@ 12.39

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Braunschweig

39.9%+5.8%

Draw

25.0%-3.2%

Dresden

35.1%-2.6%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.7%

High probability

Over 2.559.4%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes62.1%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.568.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.558.1%

Good chance

Over 10.547.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.537.7%

Toss-up

Most cornersBraunschweig48.2%Dresden41.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.577.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.566.9%

Strong chance

Over 26.554.6%

Good chance

Over 28.542.2%

Reasonable chance

Recent shot volume

Braunschweig15.7 taken14.8 faced
Dresden12.8 taken14.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.7%2.559.4%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.581.7%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

BraunschweigLWLLL
DresdenWLWLL

Last 5 meetings: Braunschweig 3 · 2 draws · Dresden 0 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-05-09Braunschweig 2-1 Dresden
2025-12-12Dresden 2-3 Braunschweig
2018-04-08Braunschweig 1-1 Dresden
2017-10-29Dresden 1-1 Braunschweig
2017-04-10Braunschweig 1-0 Dresden

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BraunschweigDresden
League position#14 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-31-0-3
Current streakL3L2
Record, home vs away0-0-20-0-2
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 69% · BTTS in 61%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Braunschweig win2.752.51
Draw3.304.00
Dresden win2.502.85
Over 2.5 goals1.601.68
Under 2.5 goals2.302.46

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Braunschweig win2.51
Draw4.00
Dresden win2.85
Both teams to score1.61

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.70
Braunschweig most2.51
Dresden most2.85

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.23
Over 8.5 corners1.40
Over 9.5 corners1.67
Over 10.5 corners2.07
Braunschweig most2.07
Dresden most2.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.22
Over 3.5 cards1.54
Over 4.5 cards2.18
Over 5.5 cards3.47
Braunschweig most2.91
Dresden most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.48
Over 8.5 SoT1.80
Over 9.5 SoT2.31
Braunschweig most1.98
Dresden most2.69

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.29
Over 24.5 shots1.50
Over 26.5 shots1.83
Over 28.5 shots2.37
Braunschweig most1.77
Dresden most2.68

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.46
Over 22.5 fouls1.86
Over 24.5 fouls2.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 77.8% Over 24.5 66.8% Over 26.5 54.6% Over 28.5 42.2%
Most: Braunschweig 56.5% Most: Dresden 37.4%
Braunschweig Over 13.2 56.5% Dresden Over 13.2 42.8%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.8% Over 7.5 67.8% Over 8.5 55.6% Over 9.5 43.4%
Most: Braunschweig 50.5% Most: Dresden 37.2%
Braunschweig Over 4.2 52.3% Dresden Over 4.2 42.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 82.1% Over 3.5 64.9% Over 4.5 45.8%
Most: Braunschweig 34.3% Most: Dresden 46.3%
Braunschweig Over 1.8 61.0% Dresden Over 1.8 68.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Braunschweig clean sheet 22.6%
Dresden clean sheet 20.2%
Braunschweig win to nil 17.4%
Dresden win to nil 15.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.9% draw 25.0% away 35.1%
double_chance
1X 64.9% 12 75.0% X2 60.1%
dnb
home 53.2% away 46.8%
btts
yes 62.1% no 37.9%
clean_sheet
home 22.7% away 20.3%
win_to_nil
home 17.6% away 15.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.7% home_by_2 12.1% home_by_3plus 8.2%
away_by_1 18.3% away_by_2 10.5% away_by_3plus 6.4%
correct_score
0-0 5.2% 0-1 6.3% 0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.5% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 6.8% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 8.1%
1-3 4.0% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.9% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.2% 2-4 1.2% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 3.1% 3-1 4.6% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.7% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.0%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.2% over_1.5 81.7%
under_1.5 18.3% over_2.5 59.4% under_2.5 40.6%
over_3.5 37.0% under_3.5 63.0% over_4.5 19.8%
under_4.5 80.2% over_5.5 9.2% under_5.5 90.8%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 79.7% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.3%
under_1.5 52.7% over_2.5 21.5% under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.6%
under_1.5 56.4% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
most
home 39.9% draw 25.0% away 35.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.2% away_+2.5 91.8% home_-1.5 20.2%
away_+1.5 79.8% home_-0.5 39.9% away_+0.5 60.1%
home_+0.5 64.9% away_-0.5 35.1% home_+1.5 83.2%
away_-1.5 16.8% home_+2.5 93.6% away_-2.5 6.4%
total_exact
exact_0 5.2% exact_1 13.1% exact_2 22.4%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.2% exact_5 10.6%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 36.4% away 35.0%
total
over_0.5 78.0% under_0.5 22.0% over_1.5 44.7%
under_1.5 55.3% over_2.5 19.5% under_2.5 80.5%
btts
yes 28.1% no 71.9%
total_exact
exact_0 22.0% exact_1 33.3% exact_2 25.2%
exact_3 12.7% exact_4plus 6.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.2% draw 35.3% away 27.6%
total
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.2%
under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
btts
yes 29.8% no 70.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.4% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.7%
D/H 13.5% D/D 12.9% D/A 10.0%
A/H 3.4% A/D 6.6% A/A 25.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 81.1% under_7.5 18.9% over_8.5 71.3%
under_8.5 28.7% over_9.5 60.1% under_9.5 40.0%
over_10.5 48.4% under_10.5 51.6% over_11.5 37.3%
under_11.5 62.7% over_12.5 27.5% under_12.5 72.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.8% under_3.5 24.2% over_4.5 60.9%
under_4.5 39.1% over_5.5 45.5% under_5.5 54.5%
team_away
over_3.5 71.7% under_3.5 28.3% over_4.5 55.8%
under_4.5 44.2% over_5.5 40.2% under_5.5 59.8%
most
home 48.2% draw 10.5% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.2% away_+3.5 79.8% home_-1.5 37.8%
away_+1.5 62.2% home_-0.5 48.2% away_+0.5 51.8%
home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2% home_+1.5 68.7%
away_-1.5 31.3% home_+3.5 84.5% away_-3.5 15.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 77.8% under_22.5 22.2% over_24.5 66.9%
under_24.5 33.2% over_26.5 54.6% under_26.5 45.4%
over_28.5 42.2% under_28.5 57.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 80.1% under_10.5 19.9% over_12.5 64.9%
under_12.5 35.1% over_14.5 48.0% under_14.5 52.0%
team_away
over_10.5 69.6% under_10.5 30.4% over_12.5 51.7%
under_12.5 48.3% over_14.5 34.4% under_14.5 65.6%
most
home 56.5% draw 6.1% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.9% away_+4.5 68.1% home_-2.5 43.9%
away_+2.5 56.1% home_-0.5 56.5% away_+0.5 43.5%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+2.5 73.8%
away_-2.5 26.2% home_+4.5 83.0% away_-4.5 17.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.8% under_6.5 21.2% over_7.5 67.8%
under_7.5 32.2% over_8.5 55.6% under_8.5 44.4%
over_9.5 43.4% under_9.5 56.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.4% under_3.5 30.6% over_4.5 52.3%
under_4.5 47.7% over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
team_away
over_3.5 60.8% under_3.5 39.2% over_4.5 42.7%
under_4.5 57.3% over_5.5 27.2% under_5.5 72.8%
most
home 50.5% draw 12.4% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.9% away_+2.5 73.1% home_-0.5 50.5%
away_+0.5 49.5% home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2%
home_+2.5 83.1% away_-2.5 17.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 82.1% under_2.5 17.9% over_3.5 64.9%
under_3.5 35.1% over_4.5 45.8% under_4.5 54.2%
over_5.5 28.9% under_5.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.0% under_1.5 39.0% over_2.5 34.0%
under_2.5 66.0%
team_away
over_1.5 68.9% under_1.5 31.1% over_2.5 42.8%
under_2.5 57.3%
most
home 34.3% draw 19.3% away 46.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.6% away_+1.5 81.4% home_-0.5 34.3%
away_+0.5 65.7% home_+0.5 53.7% away_-0.5 46.3%
home_+1.5 71.9% away_-1.5 28.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 68.3% under_20.5 31.7% over_22.5 53.8%
under_22.5 46.2% over_24.5 39.4% under_24.5 60.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 68.6% under_9.5 31.4% over_11.5 47.7%
under_11.5 52.3% over_13.5 28.7% under_13.5 71.3%
team_away
over_9.5 70.4% under_9.5 29.7% over_11.5 49.8%
under_11.5 50.2% over_13.5 30.6% under_13.5 69.5%
most
home 44.8% draw 7.4% away 47.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.5% away_+3.5 75.5% home_-0.5 44.8%
away_+0.5 55.2% home_+2.5 66.6% away_-2.5 33.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.1% no 73.9%
home
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
away
yes 15.0% no 85.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Braunschweig predictions · Dresden predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

2. BundesligaBraunschweigDresdenTrack record