Go Ahead Eagles vs Groningen prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

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Go Ahead Eagles vs Groningen: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles

WDWLD

Sat, 12 Sep 202617:45UK
Groningen

WWLLD

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Both teams to score

67%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Go Ahead EaglesWin probability
42.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals86.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Both teams to score67.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 2.5 goals66.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

"Go Ahead Eagles or Groningen? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Go Ahead Eagles versus Groningen in the Eredivisie on 12 September 2026 is finely balanced. Go Ahead Eagles edge it at 43%, but the gap to the field is slim. The market broadly agrees, pricing Go Ahead Eagles at 42%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 66% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 67%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Go Ahead Eagles, 3 draws and 0 for Groningen at 1.6 goals per match. The run in: Go Ahead Eagles arrive W2 D2 L2, Groningen W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19
Over 11.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Groningen win33.8%@ 2.96
Medium risk

Draw or Groningen57.1%@ 1.75
Over 9.5 corners55.4%@ 1.81
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.02
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.56
1-2 correct score7.6%@ 13.12

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Eagles

42.8%+1.3%

Draw

23.3%+0.0%

Groningen

33.8%-1.4%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.0%

High probability

Over 2.566.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes67.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.4%

Good chance

Over 10.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersGo Ahead Eagles52.6%Groningen37.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.574.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.564.0%

Strong chance

Over 26.553.2%

Good chance

Over 28.542.3%

Reasonable chance

Recent shot volume

Go Ahead Eagles11.8 taken22.0 faced
Groningen16.5 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.0%2.566.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

Go Ahead EaglesWDWLD
GroningenWWLLD

Last 5 meetings: Go Ahead Eagles 2 · 3 draws · Groningen 0 · 1.6 goals/game.

2026-04-11Groningen 0-0 Go Ahead Eagles
2025-12-21Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen
2025-01-18Go Ahead Eagles 2-1 Groningen
2024-09-29Groningen 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles
2023-05-07Go Ahead Eagles 1-1 Groningen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Go Ahead EaglesGroningen
League position#7 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L2-2-12-1-2
Current streakD1D1
Points per game1.601.40
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-1
Goals scored per game2.802.20
Goals conceded per game2.402.40
1st half goals per game0.801.60
2nd half goals per game2.000.60
Corners won per game5.25.2
Cards per game0.81.2
Fouls per game7.68.2
Red cards this season00
Shots per game13.616.6
Shots faced per game19.014.6
Shots on target per game6.45.8
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%100.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%100.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%0.0%

Rates this season:Go Ahead EaglesGroningen

League averages this season: 4.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 84% · BTTS in 77%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Go Ahead Eagles win2.302.34
Draw4.004.29
Groningen win2.702.96
Over 2.5 goals1.441.50
Under 2.5 goals2.702.99

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Go Ahead Eagles win2.34
Draw4.28
Groningen win2.95
Both teams to score1.48

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.50
Over 3.5 goals2.24
Over 4.5 goals3.84
Go Ahead Eagles most2.34
Groningen most2.95

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.72
Over 10.5 corners2.13
Go Ahead Eagles most1.89
Groningen most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.90
Over 3.5 cards3.28
Over 4.5 cards6.60
Over 5.5 cards15.29
Go Ahead Eagles most3.52
Groningen most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.16
Over 7.5 SoT1.28
Over 8.5 SoT1.45
Over 9.5 SoT1.71
Go Ahead Eagles most1.99
Groningen most2.56

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.56
Over 26.5 shots1.88
Over 28.5 shots2.37
Go Ahead Eagles most1.91
Groningen most2.37

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.39
Over 22.5 fouls3.65
Over 24.5 fouls6.12
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 74.1% Over 24.5 64.0% Over 26.5 53.1% Over 28.5 42.3%
Most: Go Ahead Eagles 52.3% Most: Groningen 42.1%
Go Ahead Eagles Over 13.2 52.5% Groningen Over 13.2 45.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 86.3% Over 7.5 78.4% Over 8.5 69.0% Over 9.5 58.6%
Most: Go Ahead Eagles 50.3% Most: Groningen 39.0%
Go Ahead Eagles Over 4.2 61.4% Groningen Over 4.2 53.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 52.5% Over 3.5 30.5% Over 4.5 15.2%
Most: Go Ahead Eagles 28.4% Most: Groningen 46.9%
Go Ahead Eagles Over 1.8 33.2% Groningen Over 1.8 47.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet 20.0%
Groningen clean sheet 16.1%
Go Ahead Eagles win to nil 16.2%
Groningen win to nil 12.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.8% draw 23.4% away 33.9%
double_chance
1X 66.1% 12 76.6% X2 57.2%
dnb
home 55.8% away 44.2%
btts
yes 67.4% no 32.7%
clean_sheet
home 20.2% away 16.2%
win_to_nil
home 16.4% away 12.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.5% home_by_2 13.0% home_by_3plus 10.3%
away_by_1 17.1% away_by_2 10.1% away_by_3plus 6.6%
correct_score
0-0 3.7% 0-1 4.8% 0-2 4.2%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 5.5% 1-1 10.0% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.4% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 6.9%
2-3 3.7% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 3.3% 3-1 5.3% 3-2 4.2%
3-3 2.2% 3-4 0.9% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 2.4% 4-2 1.9%
4-3 1.0% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.3% under_0.5 3.7% over_1.5 86.1%
under_1.5 14.0% over_2.5 66.5% under_2.5 33.5%
over_3.5 44.7% under_3.5 55.3% over_4.5 26.0%
under_4.5 74.0% over_5.5 13.2% under_5.5 86.8%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 83.8% under_0.5 16.2% over_1.5 54.3%
under_1.5 45.7% over_2.5 27.5% under_2.5 72.5%
team_away
over_0.5 79.8% under_0.5 20.2% over_1.5 47.6%
under_1.5 52.4% over_2.5 21.8% under_2.5 78.2%
most
home 42.8% draw 23.4% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.3% away_+2.5 89.7% home_-1.5 23.3%
away_+1.5 76.7% home_-0.5 42.8% away_+0.5 57.2%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+1.5 83.3%
away_-1.5 16.7% home_+2.5 93.4% away_-2.5 6.6%
total_exact
exact_0 3.7% exact_1 10.2% exact_2 19.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 18.7% exact_5 12.8%
exact_6 7.3% exact_7plus 5.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.4% draw 35.5% away 33.1%
total
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.2%
under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
btts
yes 30.1% no 69.9%
total_exact
exact_0 20.4% exact_1 32.4% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 13.7% exact_4plus 7.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 43.0% draw 32.1% away 24.9%
total
over_0.5 83.7% under_0.5 16.3% over_1.5 54.2%
under_1.5 45.8% over_2.5 27.4% under_2.5 72.7%
btts
yes 34.5% no 65.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.5% H/D 4.2% H/A 1.7%
D/H 15.3% D/D 11.4% D/A 8.8%
A/H 4.4% A/D 6.8% A/A 22.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.5% under_7.5 20.5% over_8.5 69.5%
under_8.5 30.5% over_9.5 58.3% under_9.5 41.7%
over_10.5 46.9% under_10.5 53.1% over_11.5 36.1%
under_11.5 63.9% over_12.5 26.6% under_12.5 73.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.9% under_3.5 24.1% over_4.5 62.0%
under_4.5 38.0% over_5.5 47.6% under_5.5 52.4%
team_away
over_3.5 66.3% under_3.5 33.7% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.8% under_5.5 64.2%
most
home 52.8% draw 9.7% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-1.5 43.0%
away_+1.5 57.0% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.2%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 71.4%
away_-1.5 28.6% home_+3.5 85.4% away_-3.5 14.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 74.1% under_22.5 25.9% over_24.5 64.0%
under_24.5 36.0% over_26.5 53.2% under_26.5 46.9%
over_28.5 42.3% under_28.5 57.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.3% under_10.5 25.7% over_12.5 60.0%
under_12.5 40.0% over_14.5 45.1% under_14.5 54.9%
team_away
over_10.5 68.3% under_10.5 31.7% over_12.5 52.8%
under_12.5 47.2% over_14.5 37.9% under_14.5 62.1%
most
home 52.3% draw 5.5% away 42.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 30.8% away_+4.5 69.2% home_-2.5 41.3%
away_+2.5 58.7% home_-0.5 52.3% away_+0.5 47.7%
home_+0.5 57.9% away_-0.5 42.1% home_+2.5 68.3%
away_-2.5 31.7% home_+4.5 77.5% away_-4.5 22.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 86.3% under_6.5 13.8% over_7.5 78.4%
under_7.5 21.6% over_8.5 69.0% under_8.5 31.0%
over_9.5 58.7% under_9.5 41.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.7% under_3.5 24.3% over_4.5 61.4%
under_4.5 38.6% over_5.5 46.9% under_5.5 53.1%
team_away
over_3.5 69.4% under_3.5 30.7% over_4.5 53.7%
under_4.5 46.3% over_5.5 38.8% under_5.5 61.2%
most
home 50.3% draw 10.6% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.9% away_+2.5 70.1% home_-0.5 50.3%
away_+0.5 49.7% home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0%
home_+2.5 79.2% away_-2.5 20.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 52.6% under_2.5 47.4% over_3.5 30.5%
under_3.5 69.5% over_4.5 15.2% under_4.5 84.8%
over_5.5 6.5% under_5.5 93.5%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 33.2% under_1.5 66.9% over_2.5 11.9%
under_2.5 88.1%
team_away
over_1.5 47.3% under_1.5 52.7% over_2.5 21.8%
under_2.5 78.2%
most
home 28.4% draw 24.7% away 46.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 11.6% away_+1.5 88.4% home_-0.5 28.4%
away_+0.5 71.6% home_+0.5 53.1% away_-0.5 46.9%
home_+1.5 75.6% away_-1.5 24.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 41.8% under_20.5 58.2% over_22.5 27.4%
under_22.5 72.6% over_24.5 16.3% under_24.5 83.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 43.0% under_9.5 57.0% over_11.5 22.8%
under_11.5 77.2% over_13.5 10.1% under_13.5 89.9%
team_away
over_9.5 59.2% under_9.5 40.8% over_11.5 37.4%
under_11.5 62.6% over_13.5 20.1% under_13.5 79.9%
most
home 34.8% draw 7.9% away 57.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 15.6% away_+3.5 84.4% home_-0.5 34.8%
away_+0.5 65.2% home_+2.5 59.1% away_-2.5 40.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 10.5% no 89.5%
home
yes 6.6% no 93.4%
away
yes 4.2% no 95.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Go Ahead Eagles predictions · Groningen predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieGo Ahead EaglesGroningenTrack record