Nantes vs Nancy prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Nantes vs Nancy: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 2
Nantes

LLLD

Full time1-0Mon, 7 Sep 202619:45UK
Nancy

WDLWW

Model’s top convictions

68%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Draw or Nancy

62%

Nantes or draw

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Nantes 1-0 Nancy
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Nancy at 38.4%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 59.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 68.1% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 79.5% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 52.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 81.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 56.4% and it landed (5 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.5% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.9% and it landed (20 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 50.3% and it landed (2 shots on target). We called No at 85.4% and it missed.

Match data Nantes Nancy
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 15 5
Shots on target 2 0
Corners 4 1
Yellow cards 2 3
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 15 16

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NancyWin probability
38.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals68.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Draw or Nancy67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Nantes or draw61.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Nantes and Nancy on 7 September 2026: Nancy nose ahead at 38%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Our number sits above the market's 24% for Nancy. The gap itself is information. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 41% with both teams to score at 48%. 3) Recent form reads W0 D1 L3 for Nantes against W4 D1 L1 for Nancy. As a promoted side, Nantes carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.2%@ 2.31
Over 2.5 goals41.0%@ 2.44
Nancy win38.4%@ 2.60
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals59.0%@ 1.69
Over 8.5 corners54.2%@ 1.85
Not both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.23
0-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.80
0-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.55

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nantes

32.1%-16.0%

Draw

29.5%+1.9%

Nancy

38.4%+14.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.24)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.541.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes47.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.2%

Good chance

Over 9.543.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.5%

Low chance

Most cornersNantes52.6%Nancy36.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.9%

Good chance

Over 24.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 26.526.9%

Low chance

Over 28.517.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.1%2.541.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.568.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

NantesLLLD
NancyWDLWW

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NantesNancy
League position#18 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-32-1-1
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away0-0-21-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.47 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 47%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Nantes win1.913.12
Draw3.203.39
Nancy win3.602.60
Over 2.5 goals1.902.44
Under 2.5 goals1.901.69

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nantes win3.11
Draw3.40
Nancy win2.60
Both teams to score2.10

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.47
Over 2.5 goals2.44
Over 3.5 goals4.87
Nantes most3.11
Nancy most2.60

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.47
Over 8.5 corners1.79
Over 9.5 corners2.30
Over 10.5 corners3.09
Nantes most1.90
Nancy most2.77

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.91
Over 4.5 cards3.03
Over 5.5 cards5.46
Nantes most2.57
Nancy most2.51

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.59
Over 7.5 SoT2.01
Over 8.5 SoT2.68
Over 9.5 SoT3.78
Nantes most1.94
Nancy most2.83

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.96
Over 24.5 shots2.62
Over 26.5 shots3.72
Over 28.5 shots5.63
Nantes most1.67
Nancy most2.96

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.16
Over 24.5 fouls1.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 62.9% Over 7.5 49.7% Over 8.5 37.2% Over 9.5 26.5%
Most: Nantes 51.5% Most: Nancy 35.3%
Nantes Over 4.2 40.2% Nancy Over 4.2 29.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.0% Over 3.5 52.5% Over 4.5 33.0%
Most: Nantes 38.9% Most: Nancy 39.8%
Nantes Over 1.8 56.2% Nancy Over 1.8 56.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nantes clean sheet 29.4%
Nancy clean sheet 33.4%
Nantes win to nil 18.9%
Nancy win to nil 22.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.1% draw 29.5% away 38.4%
double_chance
1X 61.6% 12 70.6% X2 67.9%
dnb
home 45.5% away 54.5%
btts
yes 47.7% no 52.3%
clean_sheet
home 29.4% away 33.4%
win_to_nil
home 18.9% away 22.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.1% home_by_2 9.0% home_by_3plus 4.0%
away_by_1 21.5% away_by_2 11.3% away_by_3plus 5.7%
correct_score
0-0 10.5% 0-1 11.4% 0-2 7.4%
0-3 3.0% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.1% 1-1 13.8% 1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 5.9% 2-1 7.2% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.2% 3-1 2.6% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.5% under_0.5 10.5% over_1.5 68.1%
under_1.5 31.9% over_2.5 41.0% under_2.5 59.0%
over_3.5 20.5% under_3.5 79.5% over_4.5 8.6%
under_4.5 91.4% over_5.5 3.1% under_5.5 96.9%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 66.6% under_0.5 33.4% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
team_away
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.7%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
most
home 32.1% draw 29.5% away 38.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.0% away_+2.5 96.1% home_-1.5 13.0%
away_+1.5 87.0% home_-0.5 32.1% away_+0.5 67.9%
home_+0.5 61.6% away_-0.5 38.4% home_+1.5 83.0%
away_-1.5 17.0% home_+2.5 94.3% away_-2.5 5.7%
total_exact
exact_0 10.5% exact_1 21.5% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 20.5% exact_4 11.9% exact_5 5.5%
exact_6 2.1% exact_7plus 1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.8% draw 41.0% away 26.2%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 21.3% no 78.7%
total_exact
exact_0 28.8% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 9.2% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.4% draw 33.7% away 37.8%
total
over_0.5 81.9% under_0.5 18.1% over_1.5 51.0%
under_1.5 49.0% over_2.5 24.6% under_2.5 75.4%
btts
yes 32.8% no 67.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.9% H/D 6.4% H/A 3.6%
D/H 11.7% D/D 13.8% D/A 15.5%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.3% A/A 20.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.0% under_7.5 32.0% over_8.5 55.8%
under_8.5 44.2% over_9.5 43.6% under_9.5 56.4%
over_10.5 32.3% under_10.5 67.7% over_11.5 22.8%
under_11.5 77.2% over_12.5 15.4% under_12.5 84.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.5% under_3.5 30.5% over_4.5 53.4%
under_4.5 46.6% over_5.5 38.1% under_5.5 61.9%
team_away
over_3.5 58.1% under_3.5 41.9% over_4.5 40.8%
under_4.5 59.2% over_5.5 26.3% under_5.5 73.7%
most
home 52.7% draw 11.1% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.8% away_+3.5 78.2% home_-1.5 41.4%
away_+1.5 58.6% home_-0.5 52.7% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+1.5 73.9%
away_-1.5 26.1% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.9% under_22.5 49.1% over_24.5 38.2%
under_24.5 61.9% over_26.5 26.9% under_26.5 73.1%
over_28.5 17.8% under_28.5 82.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.7% under_10.5 35.3% over_12.5 46.9%
under_12.5 53.1% over_14.5 30.9% under_14.5 69.1%
team_away
over_10.5 46.4% under_10.5 53.6% over_12.5 28.7%
under_12.5 71.3% over_14.5 15.9% under_14.5 84.1%
most
home 59.8% draw 6.4% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.6% away_+4.5 66.4% home_-2.5 46.5%
away_+2.5 53.5% home_-0.5 59.8% away_+0.5 40.2%
home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8% home_+2.5 77.5%
away_-2.5 22.5% home_+4.5 86.2% away_-4.5 13.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 62.9% under_6.5 37.1% over_7.5 49.7%
under_7.5 50.3% over_8.5 37.3% under_8.5 62.7%
over_9.5 26.5% under_9.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.7% under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 40.2%
under_4.5 59.8% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
team_away
over_3.5 46.1% under_3.5 53.9% over_4.5 29.0%
under_4.5 71.0% over_5.5 16.6% under_5.5 83.4%
most
home 51.5% draw 13.2% away 35.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.4% away_+2.5 73.6% home_-0.5 51.5%
away_+0.5 48.5% home_+0.5 64.7% away_-0.5 35.3%
home_+2.5 85.3% away_-2.5 14.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.0% under_2.5 27.0% over_3.5 52.5%
under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 33.0% under_4.5 67.0%
over_5.5 18.3% under_5.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.2% under_1.5 43.8% over_2.5 29.2%
under_2.5 70.8%
team_away
over_1.5 56.8% under_1.5 43.2% over_2.5 29.8%
under_2.5 70.2%
most
home 38.9% draw 21.3% away 39.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.8% away_+1.5 79.2% home_-0.5 38.9%
away_+0.5 61.1% home_+0.5 60.2% away_-0.5 39.8%
home_+1.5 78.5% away_-1.5 21.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 92.8% under_20.5 7.2% over_22.5 86.1%
under_22.5 13.9% over_24.5 76.5% under_24.5 23.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 89.7% under_9.5 10.3% over_11.5 76.8%
under_11.5 23.2% over_13.5 59.3% under_13.5 40.7%
team_away
over_9.5 87.5% under_9.5 12.5% over_11.5 73.0%
under_11.5 27.0% over_13.5 54.4% under_13.5 45.6%
most
home 50.1% draw 6.8% away 43.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.4% away_+3.5 69.6% home_-0.5 50.1%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+2.5 69.7% away_-2.5 30.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.6% no 85.4%
home
yes 6.9% no 93.1%
away
yes 8.3% no 91.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nantes predictions · Nancy predictions · Ligue 2

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Ligue 2NantesNancyTrack record