Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Kaiserslautern vs Darmstadt: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

2. Bundesliga
Kaiserslautern

WWDDW

Full time3-0Sat, 5 Sep 202612:00UK
Darmstadt

DLDLL

Model’s top convictions

78%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Kaiserslautern or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Kaiserslautern 3-0 Darmstadt
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Kaiserslautern at 43.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 57.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 70.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 76.8% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 56.7% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 63.5% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 66.0% and it landed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 72.6% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 79.2% and it landed.

Match data Kaiserslautern Darmstadt
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 21 9
Shots on target 7 2
Corners 9 3
Yellow cards 3 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 19 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
KaiserslauternWin probability
43.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Kaiserslautern or draw69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Over 8.5 corners65.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.52

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Kaiserslautern, that gap is the story." Our engine prices Kaiserslautern at 44% for 5 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 42%. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Kaiserslautern against W0 D2 L4 for Darmstadt. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Kaiserslautern, 0 draws and 3 for Darmstadt, averaging 3.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners44.5%@ 2.25
Over 11.5 corners34.8%@ 2.87
Darmstadt win30.3%@ 3.30
Medium risk

Both teams to score57.1%@ 1.75
Draw or Darmstadt56.4%@ 1.77
Over 9.5 corners55.0%@ 1.82
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.14
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 10.99
1-0 correct score8.7%@ 11.44

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

KAI

43.6%+1.2%

Draw

26.1%+0.2%

Darmstadt

30.3%-1.4%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.553.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.0%

Good chance

Over 10.544.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.534.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersKaiserslautern51.9%Darmstadt37.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.577.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.566.0%

Strong chance

Over 26.553.6%

Good chance

Over 28.541.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.7%2.553.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

KaiserslauternWWDDW
DarmstadtDLDLL

Last 5 meetings: Kaiserslautern 2 · 0 draws · Darmstadt 3 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-02-07Darmstadt 4-0 Kaiserslautern
2025-08-31Kaiserslautern 3-1 Darmstadt
2025-05-11Kaiserslautern 2-1 Darmstadt
2024-12-14Darmstadt 5-1 Kaiserslautern
2023-03-18Darmstadt 2-0 Kaiserslautern

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

KaiserslauternDarmstadt
League position#6 of 18#18 of 18
Record W-D-L1-2-00-1-2
Current streakW1L2
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season02

League averages this season: 3.59 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 63% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Kaiserslautern win2.202.29
Draw3.503.83
Darmstadt win2.903.30
Over 2.5 goals1.671.87
Under 2.5 goals2.152.15

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Kaiserslautern win2.29
Draw3.84
Darmstadt win3.30
Both teams to score1.75

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.29
Over 2.5 goals1.87
Over 3.5 goals3.20
Kaiserslautern most2.29
Darmstadt most3.30

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.76
Over 10.5 corners2.22
Kaiserslautern most1.92
Darmstadt most2.67

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.57
Over 4.5 cards2.26
Over 5.5 cards3.64
Kaiserslautern most2.89
Darmstadt most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.21
Over 7.5 SoT1.38
Over 8.5 SoT1.63
Over 9.5 SoT2.03
Kaiserslautern most1.73
Darmstadt most3.26

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.30
Over 24.5 shots1.52
Over 26.5 shots1.86
Over 28.5 shots2.43
Kaiserslautern most1.67
Darmstadt most2.92

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.34
Over 22.5 fouls1.62
Over 24.5 fouls2.11
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.5% Over 7.5 72.6% Over 8.5 61.2% Over 9.5 49.3%
Most: Kaiserslautern 57.9% Most: Darmstadt 30.6%
Kaiserslautern Over 4.2 61.1% Darmstadt Over 4.2 41.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.1% Over 3.5 63.5% Over 4.5 44.3%
Most: Kaiserslautern 34.6% Most: Darmstadt 45.9%
Kaiserslautern Over 1.8 60.2% Darmstadt Over 1.8 67.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Kaiserslautern clean sheet 28.2%
Darmstadt clean sheet 21.1%
Kaiserslautern win to nil 21.6%
Darmstadt win to nil 14.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 43.6% draw 26.1% away 30.3%
double_chance
1X 69.7% 12 73.9% X2 56.4%
dnb
home 59.0% away 41.0%
btts
yes 57.1% no 42.9%
clean_sheet
home 28.4% away 21.1%
win_to_nil
home 21.8% away 14.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.4% home_by_2 13.3% home_by_3plus 9.0%
away_by_1 17.2% away_by_2 8.7% away_by_3plus 4.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.6% 0-1 7.0% 0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 7.2% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.8% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.3% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.4% under_0.5 6.6% over_1.5 77.7%
under_1.5 22.3% over_2.5 53.5% under_2.5 46.5%
over_3.5 31.3% under_3.5 68.7% over_4.5 15.6%
under_4.5 84.4% over_5.5 6.8% under_5.5 93.2%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 78.9% under_0.5 21.1% over_1.5 46.1%
under_1.5 53.9% over_2.5 20.6% under_2.5 79.4%
team_away
over_0.5 71.6% under_0.5 28.4% over_1.5 36.0%
under_1.5 64.0% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
most
home 43.6% draw 26.1% away 30.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.0% away_+2.5 91.0% home_-1.5 22.3%
away_+1.5 77.7% home_-0.5 43.6% away_+0.5 56.4%
home_+0.5 69.7% away_-0.5 30.3% home_+1.5 86.9%
away_-1.5 13.1% home_+2.5 95.6% away_-2.5 4.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.6% exact_1 15.7% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.7% exact_5 8.9%
exact_6 4.2% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.6% draw 40.9% away 20.5%
total
over_0.5 70.4% under_0.5 29.7% over_1.5 34.3%
under_1.5 65.7% over_2.5 12.4% under_2.5 87.6%
btts
yes 19.6% no 80.4%
total_exact
exact_0 29.7% exact_1 36.1% exact_2 21.9%
exact_3 8.9% exact_4plus 3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.7% draw 37.3% away 31.0%
total
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 42.9%
under_1.5 57.1% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
btts
yes 26.9% no 73.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.5% H/D 6.5% H/A 2.6%
D/H 13.0% D/D 15.3% D/A 12.7%
A/H 1.7% A/D 3.9% A/A 15.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.7% under_7.5 21.3% over_8.5 68.3%
under_8.5 31.7% over_9.5 56.7% under_9.5 43.3%
over_10.5 45.0% under_10.5 55.0% over_11.5 34.0%
under_11.5 66.0% over_12.5 24.6% under_12.5 75.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.2% under_3.5 23.8% over_4.5 61.4%
under_4.5 38.6% over_5.5 46.0% under_5.5 54.0%
team_away
over_3.5 67.3% under_3.5 32.7% over_4.5 50.6%
under_4.5 49.4% over_5.5 35.1% under_5.5 64.9%
most
home 52.0% draw 10.6% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-1.5 41.3%
away_+1.5 58.7% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+1.5 72.3%
away_-1.5 27.7% home_+3.5 87.0% away_-3.5 13.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 77.1% under_22.5 22.9% over_24.5 66.0%
under_24.5 34.0% over_26.5 53.6% under_26.5 46.4%
over_28.5 41.2% under_28.5 58.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 81.2% under_10.5 18.8% over_12.5 66.4%
under_12.5 33.6% over_14.5 49.6% under_14.5 50.4%
team_away
over_10.5 66.9% under_10.5 33.1% over_12.5 48.5%
under_12.5 51.5% over_14.5 31.5% under_14.5 68.5%
most
home 59.7% draw 6.0% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.8% away_+4.5 65.1% home_-2.5 47.2%
away_+2.5 52.8% home_-0.5 59.7% away_+0.5 40.3%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+2.5 76.5%
away_-2.5 23.5% home_+4.5 85.1% away_-4.5 14.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.5% under_6.5 17.5% over_7.5 72.6%
under_7.5 27.4% over_8.5 61.2% under_8.5 38.8%
over_9.5 49.3% under_9.5 50.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.4% under_3.5 23.6% over_4.5 61.1%
under_4.5 38.9% over_5.5 45.3% under_5.5 54.7%
team_away
over_3.5 59.5% under_3.5 40.5% over_4.5 41.4%
under_4.5 58.6% over_5.5 26.2% under_5.5 73.8%
most
home 57.9% draw 11.4% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.2% away_+2.5 65.8% home_-0.5 57.9%
away_+0.5 42.1% home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.1% under_2.5 18.9% over_3.5 63.5%
under_3.5 36.5% over_4.5 44.3% under_4.5 55.7%
over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.3% under_1.5 39.8% over_2.5 33.2%
under_2.5 66.8%
team_away
over_1.5 67.8% under_1.5 32.2% over_2.5 41.4%
under_2.5 58.6%
most
home 34.6% draw 19.6% away 45.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.6% away_+1.5 81.4% home_-0.5 34.6%
away_+0.5 65.4% home_+0.5 54.1% away_-0.5 45.9%
home_+1.5 72.5% away_-1.5 27.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 74.8% under_20.5 25.2% over_22.5 61.6%
under_22.5 38.5% over_24.5 47.3% under_24.5 52.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 71.0% under_9.5 29.0% over_11.5 50.7%
under_11.5 49.3% over_13.5 31.4% under_13.5 68.6%
team_away
over_9.5 76.8% under_9.5 23.2% over_11.5 58.0%
under_11.5 42.0% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.6%
most
home 41.3% draw 7.1% away 51.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.3% away_+3.5 77.7% home_-0.5 41.3%
away_+0.5 58.8% home_+2.5 62.6% away_-2.5 37.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
home
yes 7.2% no 92.8%
away
yes 14.7% no 85.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Kaiserslautern predictions · Darmstadt predictions · 2. Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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2. BundesligaKaiserslauternDarmstadtTrack record