Cercle Brugge vs Gent prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Cercle Brugge vs Gent: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Pro League
Cercle Brugge

LDDLL

Full time0-3Sun, 6 Sep 202612:30UK
Gent

LWWWW

Model’s top convictions

79%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Cercle Brugge or draw

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Cercle Brugge 0-3 Gent
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Cercle Brugge at 42.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 67.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 58.5% and it missed. We called Yes at 77.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.4% and it missed (8 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 54.5% and it landed (1 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 60.5% and it missed (18 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 71.1% and it missed (4 shots on target). We called No at 82.1% and it landed.

Match data Cercle Brugge Gent
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 2
Shots 9 9
Shots on target 1 3
Corners 8 0
Yellow cards 1 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Cercle BruggeWin probability
42.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Cercle Brugge or draw67.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Over 8.5 corners65.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.52

Model read

▾

Cercle Brugge versus Gent in the Pro League on 6 September 2026 is finely balanced. Cercle Brugge edge it at 42%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Cercle Brugge than the market (33%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (55% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) The run in: Cercle Brugge arrive W0 D2 L4, Gent W4 D1 L1. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Cercle Brugge, 1 draws and 1 for Gent, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Schedule edge: Cercle Brugge have had 5 more days of rest than Gent. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Over 11.5 corners35.4%@ 2.82
Gent win32.1%@ 3.12
Medium risk

Both teams to score58.5%@ 1.71
Draw or Gent57.9%@ 1.73
Over 9.5 corners55.3%@ 1.81
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.1%@ 8.24
2-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.15
1-0 correct score8.1%@ 12.30

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cercle Brugge

42.1%+9.1%

Draw

25.8%-0.4%

Gent

32.1%-8.7%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.42, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.8%

High probability

Over 2.554.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes58.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.3%

Good chance

Over 10.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersCercle Brugge57.3%Gent32.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.571.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 26.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.537.4%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.8%2.554.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.8%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Cercle BruggeLDDLL
GentLWWWW

Last 5 meetings: Cercle Brugge 3 · 1 draws · Gent 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-02-20Gent 0-1 Cercle Brugge
2025-09-28Cercle Brugge 2-4 Gent
2024-12-15Gent 1-1 Cercle Brugge
2024-09-26Cercle Brugge 2-1 Gent
2024-02-11Gent 1-2 Cercle Brugge

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Cercle BruggeGent
League position#13 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L0-2-24-0-0
Current streakL2W4
Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-0
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 3.19 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 69% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cercle Brugge win2.752.38
Draw3.403.88
Gent win2.253.12
Over 2.5 goals1.701.82
Under 2.5 goals2.102.22

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cercle Brugge win2.37
Draw3.87
Gent win3.12
Both teams to score1.71

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.07
Cercle Brugge most2.37
Gent most3.12

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.19
Cercle Brugge most1.74
Gent most3.07

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.20
Over 4.5 cards3.70
Over 5.5 cards7.09
Cercle Brugge most3.37
Gent most2.05

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.41
Over 8.5 SoT1.67
Over 9.5 SoT2.07
Cercle Brugge most1.78
Gent most3.06

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.40
Over 24.5 shots1.65
Over 26.5 shots2.05
Over 28.5 shots2.68
Cercle Brugge most1.54
Gent most3.35

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.82
Over 22.5 fouls2.49
Over 24.5 fouls3.68
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.0% Over 7.5 71.1% Over 8.5 59.9% Over 9.5 48.4%
Most: Cercle Brugge 56.0% Most: Gent 32.7%
Cercle Brugge Over 4.2 58.8% Gent Over 4.2 41.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.9% Over 3.5 45.5% Over 4.5 27.0%
Most: Cercle Brugge 29.6% Most: Gent 48.7%
Cercle Brugge Over 1.8 43.9% Gent Over 1.8 58.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cercle Brugge clean sheet 26.4%
Gent clean sheet 21.2%
Cercle Brugge win to nil 20.2%
Gent win to nil 15.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 42.1% draw 25.8% away 32.1%
double_chance
1X 67.9% 12 74.2% X2 57.9%
dnb
home 56.8% away 43.2%
btts
yes 58.5% no 41.6%
clean_sheet
home 26.5% away 21.2%
win_to_nil
home 20.3% away 15.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 12.8% home_by_3plus 8.6%
away_by_1 17.7% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 5.0%
correct_score
0-0 6.2% 0-1 6.9% 0-2 5.0%
0-3 2.2% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.1% 1-1 12.1% 1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.4% 1-4 1.1% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.8% 2-1 9.0% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.6% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 4.7% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.4% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.8% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.8% under_0.5 6.2% over_1.5 78.8%
under_1.5 21.2% over_2.5 54.9% under_2.5 45.1%
over_3.5 32.6% under_3.5 67.4% over_4.5 16.5%
under_4.5 83.5% over_5.5 7.2% under_5.5 92.8%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 78.8% under_0.5 21.2% over_1.5 45.9%
under_1.5 54.1% over_2.5 20.5% under_2.5 79.5%
team_away
over_0.5 73.5% under_0.5 26.5% over_1.5 38.3%
under_1.5 61.7% over_2.5 14.9% under_2.5 85.1%
most
home 42.1% draw 25.8% away 32.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.6% away_+2.5 91.5% home_-1.5 21.3%
away_+1.5 78.7% home_-0.5 42.1% away_+0.5 57.9%
home_+0.5 67.9% away_-0.5 32.1% home_+1.5 85.6%
away_-1.5 14.4% home_+2.5 95.0% away_-2.5 5.0%
total_exact
exact_0 6.2% exact_1 15.0% exact_2 23.9%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.1% exact_5 9.3%
exact_6 4.5% exact_7plus 2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.4% draw 36.8% away 26.8%
total
over_0.5 77.3% under_0.5 22.7% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.3% over_2.5 18.7% under_2.5 81.3%
btts
yes 27.1% no 72.9%
total_exact
exact_0 22.7% exact_1 33.6% exact_2 25.0%
exact_3 12.4% exact_4plus 6.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.3% draw 38.7% away 31.0%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
btts
yes 24.7% no 75.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.0% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.4%
D/H 11.1% D/D 14.2% D/A 11.4%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.6% A/A 20.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.3% under_7.5 20.8% over_8.5 68.9%
under_8.5 31.1% over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6%
over_10.5 45.7% under_10.5 54.4% over_11.5 34.6%
under_11.5 65.4% over_12.5 25.1% under_12.5 74.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.0% under_3.5 21.0% over_4.5 65.2%
under_4.5 34.8% over_5.5 50.4% under_5.5 49.6%
team_away
over_3.5 63.7% under_3.5 36.3% over_4.5 46.6%
under_4.5 53.4% over_5.5 31.4% under_5.5 68.6%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.1% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-1.5 46.8%
away_+1.5 53.2% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 76.4%
away_-1.5 23.6% home_+3.5 89.4% away_-3.5 10.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 71.6% under_22.5 28.4% over_24.5 60.5%
under_24.5 39.5% over_26.5 48.8% under_26.5 51.2%
over_28.5 37.4% under_28.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 79.5% under_10.5 20.5% over_12.5 65.7%
under_12.5 34.3% over_14.5 50.4% under_14.5 49.6%
team_away
over_10.5 57.9% under_10.5 42.1% over_12.5 40.5%
under_12.5 59.5% over_14.5 25.8% under_14.5 74.2%
most
home 64.8% draw 5.4% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.4% away_+4.5 58.6% home_-2.5 53.3%
away_+2.5 46.8% home_-0.5 64.8% away_+0.5 35.2%
home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9% home_+2.5 79.5%
away_-2.5 20.5% home_+4.5 86.9% away_-4.5 13.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.0% under_6.5 19.0% over_7.5 71.1%
under_7.5 28.9% over_8.5 59.9% under_8.5 40.1%
over_9.5 48.4% under_9.5 51.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.1% under_3.5 25.9% over_4.5 58.8%
under_4.5 41.2% over_5.5 43.5% under_5.5 56.5%
team_away
over_3.5 59.4% under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.2% under_5.5 72.8%
most
home 56.0% draw 11.3% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.1% away_+2.5 66.9% home_-0.5 56.0%
away_+0.5 44.0% home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7%
home_+2.5 85.1% away_-2.5 14.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.9% under_2.5 33.1% over_3.5 45.5%
under_3.5 54.5% over_4.5 27.0% under_4.5 73.0%
over_5.5 14.1% under_5.5 85.9%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 43.9% under_1.5 56.1% over_2.5 19.2%
under_2.5 80.8%
team_away
over_1.5 58.2% under_1.5 41.8% over_2.5 31.6%
under_2.5 68.4%
most
home 29.6% draw 21.6% away 48.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.8% away_+1.5 86.2% home_-0.5 29.6%
away_+0.5 70.4% home_+0.5 51.3% away_-0.5 48.7%
home_+1.5 72.0% away_-1.5 28.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 54.9% under_20.5 45.1% over_22.5 40.2%
under_22.5 59.8% over_24.5 27.2% under_24.5 72.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.5% under_9.5 42.5% over_11.5 36.6%
under_11.5 63.4% over_13.5 20.1% under_13.5 79.9%
team_away
over_9.5 62.4% under_9.5 37.6% over_11.5 41.6%
under_11.5 58.4% over_13.5 24.1% under_13.5 75.9%
most
home 42.7% draw 7.5% away 49.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-0.5 42.7%
away_+0.5 57.4% home_+2.5 64.9% away_-2.5 35.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.9% no 82.1%
home
yes 7.0% no 93.0%
away
yes 11.7% no 88.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cercle Brugge predictions · Gent predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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