Panathinaikos vs PAOK prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Panathinaikos vs PAOK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Panathinaikos

DLLDW

Full time3-1Sun, 6 Sep 202619:30UK
PAOK

DDDWW

Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Panathinaikos or draw

64%

Draw or PAOK

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Panathinaikos 3-1 PAOK
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Panathinaikos at 36.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 54.8% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 71.6% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 76.1% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 51.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.8% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 62.8% and it landed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 69.4% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 60.5% and it missed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.0% and it landed (13 shots on target). We called No at 85.8% and it missed.

Match data Panathinaikos PAOK
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 25 5
Shots on target 11 2
Corners 5 2
Yellow cards 3 1
Red cards 1 1
Fouls 19 11

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PanathinaikosWin probability
36.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals71.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.40
Panathinaikos or draw64.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Draw or PAOK64.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.56

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Panathinaikos and PAOK on 6 September 2026: Panathinaikos nose ahead at 36%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Panathinaikos higher (40%) than our model does. • Totals sit close to the fence: 45% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 51%. • The run in: Panathinaikos arrive W1 D2 L3, PAOK W3 D3 L0. • The recent series reads 1 wins for Panathinaikos, 2 draws and 2 for PAOK over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.032 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.9%@ 2.09
Over 2.5 goals45.2%@ 2.21
Over 9.5 corners37.6%@ 2.66
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals54.8%@ 1.82
Both teams to score51.1%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.41
1-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.24
0-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.32

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Panathinaikos

36.0%-3.6%

Draw

28.4%+0.3%

PAOK

35.6%+3.3%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.032 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.571.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.2%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.537.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.528.5%

Low chance

Over 11.520.9%

Low chance

Most cornersPanathinaikos53.2%PAOK35.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.9%

Good chance

Over 24.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.1%

Low chance

Over 28.520.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.5%2.545.2%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.571.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

PanathinaikosDLLDW
PAOKDDDWW

Last 5 meetings: Panathinaikos 1 · 2 draws · PAOK 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-05-17Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK
2026-04-05PAOK 0-0 Panathinaikos
2025-12-21PAOK 2-0 Panathinaikos
2025-11-09Panathinaikos 2-1 PAOK
2025-04-27PAOK 2-1 Panathinaikos

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PanathinaikosPAOK
League position#6 of 14#1 of 14
Record W-D-L1-0-02-0-0
Current streakW1W2
Record, home vs away·1-0-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Panathinaikos win2.352.78
Draw3.253.52
PAOK win2.852.81
Over 2.5 goals2.002.21
Under 2.5 goals1.801.82

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Panathinaikos win2.78
Draw3.52
PAOK win2.81
Both teams to score1.96

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.21
Over 3.5 goals4.19
Panathinaikos most2.78
PAOK most2.81

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners2.03
Over 9.5 corners2.69
Over 10.5 corners3.76
Panathinaikos most1.87
PAOK most2.81

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.44
Over 4.5 cards1.96
Over 5.5 cards2.98
Panathinaikos most3.05
PAOK most2.06

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.82
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.04
Panathinaikos most1.74
PAOK most3.25

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.53
Over 26.5 shots3.43
Over 28.5 shots4.89
Panathinaikos most1.61
PAOK most3.08

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.12
Over 22.5 fouls1.24
Over 24.5 fouls1.42
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.8% Over 7.5 55.0% Over 8.5 43.4% Over 9.5 32.9%
Most: Panathinaikos 57.6% Most: PAOK 30.8%
Panathinaikos Over 4.2 48.3% PAOK Over 4.2 29.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.0% Over 3.5 69.4% Over 4.5 50.9%
Most: Panathinaikos 32.8% Most: PAOK 48.6%
Panathinaikos Over 1.8 63.0% PAOK Over 1.8 72.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Panathinaikos clean sheet 29.0%
PAOK clean sheet 28.8%
Panathinaikos win to nil 20.0%
PAOK win to nil 19.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.0% draw 28.4% away 35.6%
double_chance
1X 64.4% 12 71.6% X2 64.0%
dnb
home 50.3% away 49.7%
btts
yes 51.1% no 48.9%
clean_sheet
home 29.1% away 28.8%
win_to_nil
home 20.1% away 19.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.1% home_by_2 10.5% home_by_3plus 5.4%
away_by_1 20.0% away_by_2 10.4% away_by_3plus 5.3%
correct_score
0-0 9.0% 0-1 9.7% 0-2 6.4%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 9.8% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.3% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.5% 2-1 8.0% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.0% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.0% under_0.5 9.0% over_1.5 71.6%
under_1.5 28.4% over_2.5 45.2% under_2.5 54.8%
over_3.5 23.9% under_3.5 76.1% over_4.5 10.7%
under_4.5 89.4% over_5.5 4.1% under_5.5 95.9%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.4%
under_1.5 64.6% over_2.5 13.1% under_2.5 87.0%
team_away
over_0.5 70.9% under_0.5 29.1% over_1.5 35.1%
under_1.5 64.9% over_2.5 12.9% under_2.5 87.1%
most
home 36.0% draw 28.4% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.4% away_+2.5 94.6% home_-1.5 15.9%
away_+1.5 84.1% home_-0.5 36.0% away_+0.5 64.0%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.6% home_+1.5 84.3%
away_-1.5 15.7% home_+2.5 94.7% away_-2.5 5.3%
total_exact
exact_0 9.0% exact_1 19.5% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.2% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 24.7% draw 42.6% away 32.7%
total
over_0.5 68.8% under_0.5 31.2% over_1.5 32.5%
under_1.5 67.6% over_2.5 11.3% under_2.5 88.7%
btts
yes 19.3% no 80.7%
total_exact
exact_0 31.2% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.2%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.6% draw 39.3% away 29.2%
total
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.8%
btts
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 18.8% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.6%
D/H 13.4% D/D 16.7% D/A 12.4%
A/H 2.3% A/D 5.9% A/A 24.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.2% under_7.5 37.9% over_8.5 49.4%
under_8.5 50.6% over_9.5 37.2% under_9.5 62.8%
over_10.5 26.6% under_10.5 73.4% over_11.5 18.1%
under_11.5 82.0% over_12.5 11.7% under_12.5 88.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.6% under_3.5 34.4% over_4.5 49.5%
under_4.5 50.5% over_5.5 34.8% under_5.5 65.3%
team_away
over_3.5 52.6% under_3.5 47.4% over_4.5 35.8%
under_4.5 64.2% over_5.5 22.5% under_5.5 77.5%
most
home 53.4% draw 11.0% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-1.5 42.2%
away_+1.5 57.8% home_-0.5 53.4% away_+0.5 46.6%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.7% home_+1.5 74.2%
away_-1.5 25.8% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.9% under_22.5 49.1% over_24.5 39.5%
under_24.5 60.5% over_26.5 29.1% under_26.5 70.9%
over_28.5 20.4% under_28.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.7% under_10.5 35.3% over_12.5 49.2%
under_12.5 50.8% over_14.5 34.8% under_14.5 65.2%
team_away
over_10.5 43.7% under_10.5 56.3% over_12.5 28.2%
under_12.5 71.8% over_14.5 16.8% under_14.5 83.2%
most
home 61.9% draw 5.6% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.3% away_+4.5 61.7% home_-2.5 50.1%
away_+2.5 49.9% home_-0.5 61.9% away_+0.5 38.1%
home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+2.5 77.6%
away_-2.5 22.4% home_+4.5 85.5% away_-4.5 14.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.8% under_6.5 33.2% over_7.5 55.0%
under_7.5 45.0% over_8.5 43.4% under_8.5 56.6%
over_9.5 32.9% under_9.5 67.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.9% under_3.5 36.1% over_4.5 48.3%
under_4.5 51.7% over_5.5 34.2% under_5.5 65.8%
team_away
over_3.5 44.9% under_3.5 55.1% over_4.5 29.0%
under_4.5 71.1% over_5.5 17.3% under_5.5 82.7%
most
home 57.6% draw 11.6% away 30.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.9% away_+2.5 66.1% home_-0.5 57.6%
away_+0.5 42.4% home_+0.5 69.2% away_-0.5 30.8%
home_+2.5 86.8% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.0% under_2.5 15.0% over_3.5 69.4%
under_3.5 30.6% over_4.5 50.9% under_4.5 49.1%
over_5.5 33.5% under_5.5 66.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 63.0% under_1.5 37.0% over_2.5 36.1%
under_2.5 63.9%
team_away
over_1.5 72.9% under_1.5 27.1% over_2.5 47.7%
under_2.5 52.3%
most
home 32.8% draw 18.6% away 48.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.9% away_+1.5 82.1% home_-0.5 32.8%
away_+0.5 67.2% home_+0.5 51.4% away_-0.5 48.6%
home_+1.5 69.5% away_-1.5 30.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 89.1% under_20.5 10.9% over_22.5 80.9%
under_22.5 19.1% over_24.5 70.2% under_24.5 29.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.1% under_9.5 17.9% over_11.5 65.9%
under_11.5 34.1% over_13.5 47.3% under_13.5 52.7%
team_away
over_9.5 87.3% under_9.5 12.7% over_11.5 73.7%
under_11.5 26.3% over_13.5 56.5% under_13.5 43.5%
most
home 40.3% draw 6.5% away 53.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 40.3%
away_+0.5 59.7% home_+2.5 59.8% away_-2.5 40.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.2% no 85.8%
home
yes 7.7% no 92.3%
away
yes 7.0% no 93.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Panathinaikos predictions · PAOK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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