Levadeiakos vs Panetolikos prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Levadeiakos vs Panetolikos: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Levadeiakos

WWLLL

Full time0-2Sun, 6 Sep 202618:00UK
Panetolikos

DDLWW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Levadeiakos or draw

55%

Both teams to score

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Levadeiakos 0-2 Panetolikos
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Levadeiakos at 47.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.6% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it missed. We called Yes at 70.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 78.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 66.0% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 73.4% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 60.9% and it missed (26 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 54.7% and it missed (3 shots on target). We called No at 71.8% and it landed.

Match data Levadeiakos Panetolikos
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 2
Shots 17 9
Shots on target 0 3
Corners 8 2
Yellow cards 0 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 18

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LevadeiakosWin probability
47.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Levadeiakos or draw73.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Both teams to score54.7%Good chancePays @ 1.83

Model read

▾

Levadeiakos versus Panetolikos on 6 September 2026 tilts towards Levadeiakos in our numbers (48%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Levadeiakos at 53%. Caution noted. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. 3) The recent series reads 3 wins for Levadeiakos, 1 draws and 1 for Panetolikos over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Levadeiakos W3 D0 L3, Panetolikos W3 D2 L1. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners45.1%@ 2.22
Over 9.5 corners34.8%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Draw or Panetolikos52.2%@ 1.92
Over 2.5 goals51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.11
1-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.19
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.59

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Levadeiakos

47.8%-5.2%

Draw

26.0%+0.6%

Panetolikos

26.2%+4.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.22)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.545.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.534.8%

Toss-up

Over 10.526.0%

Low chance

Over 11.518.8%

Low chance

Most cornersLevadeiakos54.9%Panetolikos33.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.5%

Good chance

Over 24.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.8%

Low chance

Over 28.520.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.4%2.551.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LevadeiakosWWLLL
PanetolikosDDLWW

Last 5 meetings: Levadeiakos 3 · 1 draws · Panetolikos 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-01-19Panetolikos 1-3 Levadeiakos
2025-10-05Levadeiakos 6-0 Panetolikos
2025-05-14Levadeiakos 1-2 Panetolikos
2025-03-29Panetolikos 1-2 Levadeiakos
2025-03-09Panetolikos 0-0 Levadeiakos

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LevadeiakosPanetolikos
League position#14 of 14#2 of 14
Record W-D-L0-0-22-0-0
Current streakL2W2
Record, home vs away0-0-1·
Red cards this season10

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Levadeiakos win1.792.09
Draw3.603.85
Panetolikos win4.203.82
Over 2.5 goals2.001.94
Under 2.5 goals1.802.07

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Levadeiakos win2.09
Draw3.85
Panetolikos win3.81
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.94
Over 3.5 goals3.39
Levadeiakos most2.09
Panetolikos most3.81

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.69
Over 8.5 corners2.17
Over 9.5 corners2.94
Over 10.5 corners4.20
Levadeiakos most1.81
Panetolikos most2.96

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.36
Over 4.5 cards1.79
Over 5.5 cards2.61
Levadeiakos most3.15
Panetolikos most1.98

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.83
Over 8.5 SoT2.32
Over 9.5 SoT3.07
Levadeiakos most1.77
Panetolikos most3.16

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.98
Over 24.5 shots2.56
Over 26.5 shots3.47
Over 28.5 shots4.97
Levadeiakos most1.59
Panetolikos most3.17

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.17
Over 24.5 fouls1.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.5% Over 7.5 54.7% Over 8.5 43.1% Over 9.5 32.6%
Most: Levadeiakos 56.6% Most: Panetolikos 31.7%
Levadeiakos Over 4.2 47.4% Panetolikos Over 4.2 29.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.5% Over 3.5 73.4% Over 4.5 55.9%
Most: Levadeiakos 31.7% Most: Panetolikos 50.4%
Levadeiakos Over 1.8 65.2% Panetolikos Over 1.8 76.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Levadeiakos clean sheet 32.1%
Panetolikos clean sheet 20.0%
Levadeiakos win to nil 25.0%
Panetolikos win to nil 13.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.8% draw 26.0% away 26.3%
double_chance
1X 73.8% 12 74.1% X2 52.2%
dnb
home 64.6% away 35.4%
btts
yes 54.8% no 45.3%
clean_sheet
home 32.3% away 20.1%
win_to_nil
home 25.2% away 13.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 14.7% home_by_3plus 10.5%
away_by_1 15.7% away_by_2 7.3% away_by_3plus 3.2%
correct_score
0-0 7.1% 0-1 6.7% 0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.8% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 6.7%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.4% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.9% under_0.5 7.1% over_1.5 76.4%
under_1.5 23.6% over_2.5 51.6% under_2.5 48.4%
over_3.5 29.5% under_3.5 70.5% over_4.5 14.3%
under_4.5 85.7% over_5.5 6.0% under_5.5 94.0%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 80.0% under_0.5 20.1% over_1.5 47.7%
under_1.5 52.3% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
team_away
over_0.5 67.7% under_0.5 32.3% over_1.5 31.3%
under_1.5 68.7% over_2.5 10.6% under_2.5 89.4%
most
home 47.8% draw 26.0% away 26.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.5% away_+2.5 89.5% home_-1.5 25.2%
away_+1.5 74.8% home_-0.5 47.8% away_+0.5 52.2%
home_+0.5 73.8% away_-0.5 26.3% home_+1.5 89.5%
away_-1.5 10.5% home_+2.5 96.8% away_-2.5 3.2%
total_exact
exact_0 7.1% exact_1 16.5% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.3%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 33.2% draw 41.2% away 25.7%
total
over_0.5 70.9% under_0.5 29.1% over_1.5 35.0%
under_1.5 65.0% over_2.5 12.8% under_2.5 87.2%
btts
yes 21.0% no 79.0%
total_exact
exact_0 29.1% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.2%
exact_3 9.1% exact_4plus 3.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.2% draw 35.3% away 23.5%
total
over_0.5 78.9% under_0.5 21.1% over_1.5 46.1%
under_1.5 53.9% over_2.5 20.6% under_2.5 79.4%
btts
yes 28.2% no 71.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 27.1% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.5%
D/H 17.0% D/D 14.5% D/A 9.7%
A/H 3.2% A/D 5.7% A/A 16.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 59.0% under_7.5 41.0% over_8.5 46.1%
under_8.5 53.9% over_9.5 34.0% under_9.5 66.0%
over_10.5 23.8% under_10.5 76.2% over_11.5 15.8%
under_11.5 84.2% over_12.5 10.0% under_12.5 90.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 65.0% under_3.5 35.1% over_4.5 48.7%
under_4.5 51.3% over_5.5 33.9% under_5.5 66.1%
team_away
over_3.5 49.0% under_3.5 51.0% over_4.5 32.3%
under_4.5 67.7% over_5.5 19.6% under_5.5 80.4%
most
home 55.1% draw 11.1% away 33.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 55.1% away_+0.5 44.9%
home_+0.5 66.2% away_-0.5 33.8% home_+1.5 76.0%
away_-1.5 24.0% home_+3.5 89.9% away_-3.5 10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.5% under_22.5 49.5% over_24.5 39.1%
under_24.5 60.9% over_26.5 28.8% under_26.5 71.2%
over_28.5 20.1% under_28.5 79.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.0% under_10.5 35.0% over_12.5 49.5%
under_12.5 50.5% over_14.5 35.1% under_14.5 64.9%
team_away
over_10.5 42.7% under_10.5 57.3% over_12.5 27.3%
under_12.5 72.7% over_14.5 16.1% under_14.5 83.9%
most
home 62.9% draw 5.6% away 31.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.2% away_+4.5 60.8% home_-2.5 51.0%
away_+2.5 49.0% home_-0.5 62.9% away_+0.5 37.1%
home_+0.5 68.4% away_-0.5 31.6% home_+2.5 78.3%
away_-2.5 21.7% home_+4.5 86.1% away_-4.5 13.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.5% under_6.5 33.5% over_7.5 54.7%
under_7.5 45.3% over_8.5 43.1% under_8.5 56.9%
over_9.5 32.6% under_9.5 67.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.2% under_3.5 36.8% over_4.5 47.4%
under_4.5 52.6% over_5.5 33.4% under_5.5 66.6%
team_away
over_3.5 45.4% under_3.5 54.6% over_4.5 29.5%
under_4.5 70.5% over_5.5 17.7% under_5.5 82.3%
most
home 56.6% draw 11.7% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.0% away_+2.5 67.0% home_-0.5 56.6%
away_+0.5 43.4% home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7%
home_+2.5 86.2% away_-2.5 13.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.5% under_2.5 12.5% over_3.5 73.4%
under_3.5 26.6% over_4.5 55.9% under_4.5 44.1%
over_5.5 38.3% under_5.5 61.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.2% under_1.5 34.8% over_2.5 38.4%
under_2.5 61.6%
team_away
over_1.5 76.4% under_1.5 23.6% over_2.5 52.3%
under_2.5 47.7%
most
home 31.7% draw 17.9% away 50.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.4% away_+1.5 82.6% home_-0.5 31.7%
away_+0.5 68.3% home_+0.5 49.6% away_-0.5 50.4%
home_+1.5 67.4% away_-1.5 32.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 92.2% under_20.5 7.8% over_22.5 85.6%
under_22.5 14.4% over_24.5 76.4% under_24.5 23.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.2% under_9.5 17.8% over_11.5 66.0%
under_11.5 34.0% over_13.5 47.5% under_13.5 52.5%
team_away
over_9.5 91.7% under_9.5 8.3% over_11.5 81.3%
under_11.5 18.7% over_13.5 66.4% under_13.5 33.6%
most
home 33.6% draw 6.1% away 60.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.2% away_+3.5 81.8% home_-0.5 33.6%
away_+0.5 66.4% home_+2.5 52.4% away_-2.5 47.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 28.2% no 71.8%
home
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
away
yes 18.1% no 81.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Levadeiakos predictions · Panetolikos predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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