Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Utrecht

WLLDL

Sat, 5 Sep 202617:45UK
Go Ahead Eagles

LWDWL

Model’s top convictions

86%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Both teams to score

67%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedOutside trust zone (model prob 0.35, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
UtrechtWin probability
41.8%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals86.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Both teams to score67.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.48
Over 8.5 corners66.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.50

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Utrecht at 42% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 5 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Utrecht higher (46%) than our model does. 2) Everything in the shot data points to goals, 66% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 68%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Utrecht W2 D1 L3, Go Ahead Eagles W2 D1 L3. The recent series reads 2 wins for Utrecht, 3 draws and 0 for Go Ahead Eagles over 5 games, 3.8 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (outside trust zone (model prob 0.35, zone (0.45, 0.7))).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners47.2%@ 2.12
Over 11.5 corners38.1%@ 2.62
Go Ahead Eagles win34.8%@ 2.87
Medium risk

Draw or Go Ahead Eagles58.2%@ 1.72
Over 9.5 corners56.9%@ 1.76
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.00
2-1 correct score8.6%@ 11.68
1-2 correct score7.8%@ 12.90

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Utrecht

41.8%-4.0%

Draw

23.4%-0.1%

Eagles

34.8%+4.1%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.35, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.586.1%

High probability

Over 2.566.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes67.5%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.6%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.9%

Good chance

Over 10.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.538.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersUtrecht51.4%Go Ahead Eagles38.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.576.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.566.5%

Strong chance

Over 26.555.8%

Good chance

Over 28.544.8%

Reasonable chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.586.1%2.566.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.566.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.35, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Form & head-to-head

UtrechtWLLDL
Go Ahead EaglesLWDWL

Last 5 meetings: Utrecht 2 · 3 draws · Go Ahead Eagles 0 · 3.8 goals/game.

2026-03-22Utrecht 2-0 Go Ahead Eagles
2025-11-30Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 Utrecht
2025-04-06Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 Utrecht
2024-12-15Utrecht 3-3 Go Ahead Eagles
2024-04-14Utrecht 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

UtrechtGo Ahead Eagles
League position#17 of 18#5 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-32-1-1
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-20-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Utrecht win2.102.39
Draw4.004.27
Go Ahead Eagles win3.102.87
Over 2.5 goals1.501.50
Under 2.5 goals2.502.99

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Utrecht win2.39
Draw4.27
Go Ahead Eagles win2.88
Both teams to score1.48

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.16
Over 2.5 goals1.50
Over 3.5 goals2.24
Over 4.5 goals3.84
Utrecht most2.39
Go Ahead Eagles most2.88

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.24
Over 8.5 corners1.41
Over 9.5 corners1.66
Over 10.5 corners2.06
Utrecht most1.94
Go Ahead Eagles most2.58

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.82
Over 3.5 cards3.03
Over 4.5 cards5.89
Over 5.5 cards13.11
Utrecht most3.26
Go Ahead Eagles most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.30
Over 8.5 SoT1.48
Over 9.5 SoT1.76
Utrecht most1.84
Go Ahead Eagles most2.84

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.31
Over 24.5 shots1.50
Over 26.5 shots1.79
Over 28.5 shots2.23
Utrecht most1.58
Go Ahead Eagles most3.16

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.99
Over 22.5 fouls2.84
Over 24.5 fouls4.44
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.4% Over 7.5 77.2% Over 8.5 67.5% Over 9.5 56.9%
Most: Utrecht 54.2% Most: Go Ahead Eagles 35.2%
Utrecht Over 4.2 62.8% Go Ahead Eagles Over 4.2 49.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 55.0% Over 3.5 32.9% Over 4.5 17.0%
Most: Utrecht 30.7% Most: Go Ahead Eagles 45.0%
Utrecht Over 1.8 36.7% Go Ahead Eagles Over 1.8 47.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Utrecht clean sheet 19.5%
Go Ahead Eagles clean sheet 16.5%
Utrecht win to nil 15.7%
Go Ahead Eagles win to nil 12.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.8% draw 23.4% away 34.8%
double_chance
1X 65.2% 12 76.6% X2 58.2%
dnb
home 54.6% away 45.4%
btts
yes 67.5% no 32.5%
clean_sheet
home 19.7% away 16.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.9% away 12.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.3% home_by_2 12.7% home_by_3plus 9.9%
away_by_1 17.4% away_by_2 10.4% away_by_3plus 7.0%
correct_score
0-0 3.7% 0-1 4.8% 0-2 4.3%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 5.4% 1-1 10.0% 1-2 7.8%
1-3 4.2% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.3% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 7.0%
2-3 3.8% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 4.2%
3-3 2.3% 3-4 0.9% 3-5 0.3%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.9%
4-3 1.0% 4-4 0.4% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.4% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.3% under_0.5 3.7% over_1.5 86.1%
under_1.5 13.9% over_2.5 66.5% under_2.5 33.5%
over_3.5 44.7% under_3.5 55.3% over_4.5 26.0%
under_4.5 74.0% over_5.5 13.3% under_5.5 86.8%
odd_even
odd 49.0% even 51.0%
team_home
over_0.5 83.4% under_0.5 16.6% over_1.5 53.6%
under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.9% under_2.5 73.1%
team_away
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.6% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
most
home 41.8% draw 23.4% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.9% away_+2.5 90.1% home_-1.5 22.5%
away_+1.5 77.5% home_-0.5 41.8% away_+0.5 58.2%
home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+1.5 82.7%
away_-1.5 17.3% home_+2.5 93.1% away_-2.5 7.0%
total_exact
exact_0 3.7% exact_1 10.2% exact_2 19.6%
exact_3 21.8% exact_4 18.7% exact_5 12.8%
exact_6 7.3% exact_7plus 6.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.8% draw 37.5% away 21.7%
total
over_0.5 75.4% under_0.5 24.7% over_1.5 40.8%
under_1.5 59.2% over_2.5 16.7% under_2.5 83.3%
btts
yes 24.1% no 75.9%
total_exact
exact_0 24.7% exact_1 34.5% exact_2 24.2%
exact_3 11.3% exact_4plus 5.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.8% draw 30.2% away 40.0%
total
over_0.5 87.1% under_0.5 12.9% over_1.5 60.6%
under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 33.6% under_2.5 66.5%
btts
yes 40.7% no 59.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.2% H/D 7.5% H/A 5.0%
D/H 11.2% D/D 11.3% D/A 15.0%
A/H 1.9% A/D 3.6% A/A 16.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.9% under_7.5 19.1% over_8.5 71.1%
under_8.5 28.9% over_9.5 60.1% under_9.5 39.9%
over_10.5 48.6% under_10.5 51.4% over_11.5 37.6%
under_11.5 62.4% over_12.5 27.9% under_12.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.2% under_3.5 23.8% over_4.5 62.3%
under_4.5 37.7% over_5.5 47.8% under_5.5 52.2%
team_away
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 52.7%
under_4.5 47.3% over_5.5 37.9% under_5.5 62.1%
most
home 51.5% draw 9.7% away 38.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.4% away_+3.5 75.6% home_-1.5 41.8%
away_+1.5 58.2% home_-0.5 51.5% away_+0.5 48.5%
home_+0.5 61.2% away_-0.5 38.8% home_+1.5 70.2%
away_-1.5 29.8% home_+3.5 84.6% away_-3.5 15.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 76.3% under_22.5 23.7% over_24.5 66.5%
under_24.5 33.5% over_26.5 55.8% under_26.5 44.2%
over_28.5 44.8% under_28.5 55.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 81.2% under_10.5 18.8% over_12.5 68.8%
under_12.5 31.2% over_14.5 54.8% under_14.5 45.2%
team_away
over_10.5 62.6% under_10.5 37.4% over_12.5 46.5%
under_12.5 53.5% over_14.5 31.9% under_14.5 68.1%
most
home 63.2% draw 5.1% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 52.4%
away_+2.5 47.6% home_-0.5 63.2% away_+0.5 36.8%
home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7% home_+2.5 77.5%
away_-2.5 22.5% home_+4.5 84.9% away_-4.5 15.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.4% under_6.5 14.6% over_7.5 77.2%
under_7.5 22.8% over_8.5 67.5% under_8.5 32.5%
over_9.5 56.9% under_9.5 43.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.8% under_3.5 23.3% over_4.5 62.8%
under_4.5 37.2% over_5.5 48.3% under_5.5 51.7%
team_away
over_3.5 65.8% under_3.5 34.2% over_4.5 49.5%
under_4.5 50.5% over_5.5 34.7% under_5.5 65.4%
most
home 54.2% draw 10.6% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.1% away_+2.5 66.9% home_-0.5 54.2%
away_+0.5 45.8% home_+0.5 64.8% away_-0.5 35.2%
home_+2.5 82.3% away_-2.5 17.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 55.0% under_2.5 45.0% over_3.5 33.0%
under_3.5 67.1% over_4.5 17.0% under_4.5 83.0%
over_5.5 7.6% under_5.5 92.4%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 36.7% under_1.5 63.3% over_2.5 14.1%
under_2.5 85.9%
team_away
over_1.5 47.5% under_1.5 52.5% over_2.5 22.1%
under_2.5 77.9%
most
home 30.7% draw 24.3% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.3% away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 30.7%
away_+0.5 69.3% home_+0.5 55.0% away_-0.5 45.0%
home_+1.5 76.7% away_-1.5 23.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 50.4% under_20.5 49.6% over_22.5 35.2%
under_22.5 64.8% over_24.5 22.5% under_24.5 77.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.2% under_9.5 39.8% over_11.5 38.5%
under_11.5 61.5% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
team_away
over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.7% over_11.5 32.7%
under_11.5 67.3% over_13.5 16.7% under_13.5 83.3%
most
home 50.3% draw 7.9% away 41.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.7% away_+3.5 72.3% home_-0.5 50.3%
away_+0.5 49.7% home_+2.5 72.8% away_-2.5 27.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 14.3% no 85.7%
home
yes 3.3% no 96.7%
away
yes 11.4% no 88.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Utrecht predictions · Go Ahead Eagles predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieUtrechtGo Ahead EaglesTrack record